tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85660360316707226132024-03-13T03:47:16.166-07:00Graph of the WeekSome pictures and about a thousand words...Patrick Rhodeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14874894005290887213noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-92204749560371628512016-10-24T09:14:00.001-07:002016-10-24T09:15:59.842-07:00And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-left: 40px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">"The moment he was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Eppur si muove</em> [And yet it moves], meaning the earth."<sub style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">1</sub></span></div>
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<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Giuseppe Baretti, on Galileo Galilei</span></em></div>
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<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Galileo-Galilei" target="_blank">Galileo</a> Galilei knew the Earth revolved around the Sun and that it wasn't, as the Catholic Church would have him believe, some unmoving object around which everything else revolved. Despite religious pressure to acquiesce, he refused. Nearly 70 years prior to this "Galileo affair" as it has come to be known, Copernicus had published the first mathematical, geometric system to place the sun at the center of the solar system in his widely circulated book entitled <i>On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres</i> (1543). Galileo, using a new invention called a telescope, was able to confirm these mathematical computations through observation, albeit indirectly. Although he was later confined to his house by order of the church for challenging the Bible's teaching in Chronicles 16:30, which states "the world is firmly established; it cannot be moved", he remained resolute, stating "and yet it moves".<br />
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In effect, Copernicus and Galileo demonstrated a common approach to the accumulation of scientific knowledge, that is, through mathematical prediction and observation - and the obstacles that must be overcome to bring this knowledge to light. Likewise, gravitational waves were also predicted by mathematics, but in the early 20th century, nobody knew how to measure them. On Feb. 11, 2016, after a long struggle and costing over half a billion dollars, our perception of reality was fundamentally altered when gravitational waves were announced to have finally been directly observed.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.52px; line-height: 18.48px;">This article was written by </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="background-color: white; color: #2f26d5; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.52px; line-height: 18.48px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Patrick Rhodes</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.52px; line-height: 18.48px;"> and published on January 12, 2016. Click <a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/9947191/And-Yet-It-Moves-Gravitational-Waves.html" target="_blank">here</a></span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/8791241/Artificial-Intelligence-Solving-the-Chinese-Room-Argument.html" style="background-color: white; color: #2f26d5; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.52px; line-height: 18.48px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.52px; line-height: 18.48px;"> to read the rest of the article.</span>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-56980657603125991722016-01-15T10:09:00.000-08:002016-01-15T10:09:22.800-08:00Artificial Intelligence: Solving the Chinese Room Argument<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
Yesterday, the very best AI (artificial intelligence) had trouble beating a novice human chess player. Today, the very best human player has enormous difficulty beating the best AI. Tomorrow, the very best human player will never beat any AI. However, that's not the worst news you've heard. This is:</div>
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Computers have <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">no idea</em> how to play chess whatsoever.</div>
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They also don't understand Chinese, but that doesn't stop them from trouncing us in chess or speaking Chinese. Let's find out how this is possible and speculate on whether or not we can actually create an AI capable of true understanding.</div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sFmVaLuwyuk/Vpk02Ua2fhI/AAAAAAAAE3U/7GYmpTDoM9g/s1600/Rise_of_the_Machines_small.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sFmVaLuwyuk/Vpk02Ua2fhI/AAAAAAAAE3U/7GYmpTDoM9g/s320/Rise_of_the_Machines_small.png" width="133" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Yesterday: Pong</span></h3>
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Mankind has been dreaming of AI since antiquity, so the idea is not new. Ancient Greek mythology, for example, tells of a giant bronze robot named <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Talos</em> whose task it was to patrol the shores of Crete, protecting the inhabitants from invaders. In the Far East, circa 3rd century BC, the Chinese 'Lie Ze' text gives an account of mechanical men being given to King Mu of Zhou. Evidently, these automations were so lifelike that the king had some torn <a href="https://www.academia.edu/7846963/I_Robot_Self_as_Machine_in_the_Liezi" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">apart</a> to ensure they were, in fact, artificial. The point is, the <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">idea</em> of thinking machines has been around for millennia.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;">This article was written by </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Patrick Rhodes</a><span style="line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;"> and published on January 12, 2016. Click </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/8791241/Artificial-Intelligence-Solving-the-Chinese-Room-Argument.html" style="color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="line-height: 18.48px; text-align: left;"> to read the rest of the article.</span></span></div>
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dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-19868891491044796292015-07-28T13:06:00.000-07:002015-07-28T13:06:25.005-07:00Pluto: To Catch an Icy King<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sly as a fox, it is. Mysterious and diminutive, it has eluded us for decades. Despite what we've learned about Pluto, constant debate continues to rage over its classification. From the moment it was discovered, astronomers have bickered over this icy body and its place in our solar system. Was it Planet X? Is it a planet at all? Did it really 'have it <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pbj_llmiMg" target="_blank">coming</a>'? We've all longed to know more about this categorization-resistant body which has stirred up so much controversy in news and astronomy circles alike. How did we get so riled up about an icy rock so far distant? To understand that, we must start at the beginning.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Planet X</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Before there was Pluto, there was Planet X.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Allow me to set the scene for you: It is the mid-1800s in Europe and North America. People are migrating to cities en masse, lured by the economics of the Industrial Revolution. As the number of mechanical monstrosities increase, so too does the pace of scientific discovery. Charles Darwin has just published <i>The Origin of Species</i> (original full title and certified mouthful: "<i>On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life</i>") which inflames the science-vs-religion debate. The planet Neptune is discovered. This, coupled with Uranus' prior discovery in the late 1700s raises the possibility that more, undiscovered worlds exist in our solar system.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; line-height: 18.4799995422363px; text-align: left;">This article was written by </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="background-color: white; color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18.4799995422363px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Patrick Rhodes</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; line-height: 18.4799995422363px; text-align: left;"> and published on June 4, 2015. Click </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/8204781/Pluto-To-Catch-an-Icy-King.html" style="background-color: white; color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18.4799995422363px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #585858; line-height: 18.4799995422363px; text-align: left;"> to read the rest of the article.</span></span></div>
dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-65652943983440849642015-06-04T08:24:00.002-07:002015-06-04T08:25:39.863-07:00Can Bradley Wiggins Do It? Welcome to the Thunder-Drome!<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px;">
Many have tried. Most have failed.</div>
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Wiggins" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">Bradley Wiggins</a> knows this. He also knows the ordeal he faces, knows the pain he will endure and knows the scrutiny he will face. It's nothing he hasn't experienced before, having raced and won the world's most prestigious cycling event: the <a href="http://www.letour.com/us/" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">Tour de France</a>. This is a different animal, however. The demands placed upon his body will be much different than any road race in which he has competed. He will exert max effort under controlled conditions for exactly one hour after which, the distance he's covered will be measured.</div>
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There will be no other riders to chase nor any to attack. There will be no feed stations nor assistance of any kind. He will pedal within himself, in his own head, or as he calls it: his "escape" zone.<br />
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Welcome to the Thunder "drome", Sir Bradley Wiggins. Welcome to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hour_record" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">World Hour Record</a>.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This article was written by <a href="http://rhodestales.com/" target="_blank">Patrick Rhodes</a> and published on June 4, 2015. Click <a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/7989851/Can-Bradley-Wiggins-Do-It-Welcome-to-the-Thunder-Drome.html" target="_blank">here</a> to read the rest of the article.</span></div>
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dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-42010257214982624762015-04-17T11:01:00.000-07:002015-04-17T11:01:50.564-07:00It's a Batsman's World (Cup)<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;">The 2015 </span><a href="http://www.icc-cricket.com/cricket-world-cup" style="color: #3f6e99; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">Cricket World Cup</a><span style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"> rewrote the record books in dramatic fashion. Amidst the usual insanity that surrounds this event, there were some amazingly good - and bad - performances. Batting-wise, some of the previous records were smashed into oblivion. There are several reasons for this, but recent rule changes seem to have tipped the scales in favor of those men who can wield the willow. As the pinnacle event for the world's (arguably) second-most </span><a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/169462-most-popular-team-sports-soccer-cricket-basketball-baseball" style="color: #3f6e99; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">popular</a><span style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"> sport comes to a close, let's take a look at some of the more outstanding feats.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Feat #1: Pakistan goes 1 for 4</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let's start with a record in futility first. In a group-stage match against the West Indies (ODI match #<a href="http://www.espncricinfo.com/icc-cricket-world-cup-2015/engine/current/match/656417.html" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">3608</a>) in which Pakistan were <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/cricket-world-cup-2015-betting-odds-match-times-favorites-underdogs-1820862" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">favored</a> to win, things couldn't have started worse for the Green Shirts. Choosing to bat last due to a bit of moisture still on the pitch, Pakistan hoped to make quick work of the West Indies' openers. In fact, this plan worked rather well as the first four batsman started sluggishly, only managing a run-rate of around 4. However, things picked up for the West Indies as they tallied 310 runs on the day.</span></div>
<em style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><em style="font-family: Molengo; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 14.7839994430542px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">This article was written by <a href="http://rhodestales.com/" target="_blank">Patrick Rhodes</a> and </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">published on April 16, 2015. Click <a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/7836541/Its-a-Batsmans-World-Cup.html" target="_blank">here</a> to read the rest of the article.</span></span></i></em></em>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-21675802785395636552015-02-27T09:53:00.002-08:002015-02-27T09:54:46.453-08:00Career NBA: The Road Least Traveled<em style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">The bell rings - time to go to practice. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jarnell_Stokes" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">Jarnell Stokes</a> heads over to the gym, changes, and starts warming up with his teammates. It's his Junior year in high school. The Memphis, Tennessee native has a lot on his mind; soon he'll have to make a choice - a choice which will affect his future. Sitting on his table back home are basketball scholarship offers [1] from the universities of Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Memphis, Mississippi and Tennessee.</em><br />
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<em style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-style: normal;">It's quite rare for a high school athlete to receive a sports scholarship to even a single college, much less multiple schools. As we'll come to see, he's quite the statistical outlier in the world of basketball. Most do not play beyond high school. Those that do rarely possess the world-class talent to play in the </span><a href="http://www.nba.com/" style="color: #3f6e99; font-style: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">NBA</a><span style="font-style: normal;"> (National Basketball Association). That being said, what are Jarnell's chances that he could make a career playing in the NBA?</span></em><br />
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<em style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><em style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Molengo; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 14.7839994430542px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: start;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">This article was written by Patrick Rhodes - the </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">the </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">author</a><span style="line-height: 18px;"> of "</span>Graph of the Week" - for <a href="http://statisticsviews.com/" style="color: #2f26d5; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Statistics Views</a> and</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> published on February 27, 2015. Read the </span><span style="color: #2f26d5;"><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/7524541/Career-NBA-The-Road-Least-Traveled.html" target="_blank">rest</a></span><span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="color: #2f26d5;"><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/7524541/Career-NBA-The-Road-Least-Traveled.html" target="_blank"> of this article</a></span> there.</span></span></i></em></em>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-27642569606997138832014-10-02T08:55:00.002-07:002014-10-02T08:56:01.553-07:00The Rise of the Samurai Pitcher<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px;">
Masahiro Tanaka stands on the mound, rubbing the ball vigorously between his hands. It's a crisp, cool night in the Bronx. Stepping back, he digs his right foot into the rubber, winds up and, with a seven-foot stretch, steps towards the catcher, unleashing a blistering four-seam, 95 mph fastball. Less than <a href="http://www.efastball.com/baseball/pitching/grips/reaction-time-for-baseball-hitters/" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">half a second</a> later, it explodes into the catcher's mitt with a loud<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">pop</em>. The batter can only stand and watch as it flies by. <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Strike one</em><em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">!</em></div>
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<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;">It's a common scene when Tanaka takes the mound for the </span><a href="http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=nyy" style="color: #3f6e99; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">New York Yankees</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;">. With the focus and discipline of a Samurai warrior, their star rookie pitcher has taken Major League Baseball (MLB) by storm in 2014. His stats[1] (as of August 15, 2014) are gaudy: 2.51 </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run_average" style="color: #3f6e99; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">ERA</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;">(Earned Run Average), 12-4 record and a 1.01 </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walks_plus_hits_per_inning_pitched" style="color: #3f6e99; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">WHIP</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;"> (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched). Further, the guy's a strikeout machine, fanning 135 hitters vs only 19 walks. Tanaka is the latest Japanese ace to infiltrate MLB. Twenty years ago, you'd have to look long and hard to find a Japanese pitcher in this league (in fact, you'd find only one: </span><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nomohi01.shtml?redir" style="color: #3f6e99; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Hideo Nomo</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-style: normal; line-height: 18px;">, aka the "Tornado"), but today, it is an increasingly common site. What's going on?</span></em></div>
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<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.6000003814697px; line-height: 14.7839994430542px; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">This article was written by Patrick Rhodes - the </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">the </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">author</a><span style="line-height: 18px;"> of "</span>Graph of the Week" - for <a href="http://statisticsviews.com/" style="color: #2f26d5; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Statistics Views</a> and</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> published on January 30, 2014. Read the </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/6164091/Swallowing-the-Bitter-Pill-England-the-Premier-League-and-the-World-Cup.html" style="color: #2f26d5; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">rest</a><span style="line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/6790281/The-Rise-of-the-Samurai-Pitcher.html" style="color: #2f26d5; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"> of this article</a> there.</span></span></i></em></div>
dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-14053950052608844962014-06-02T10:08:00.001-07:002014-06-02T10:08:52.829-07:00Swallowing the Bitter Pill: England, the Premier League and the World Cup<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;">Discussions abound about England’s chances at the 2014 edition of the </span><a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/" style="color: #3f6e99; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">World Cup</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;">. For a country which has produced elite football players such as Gary Neville, John Terry and Paul Scholes (and yes, David Beckham), there isn’t a lot of optimism about their chances this summer. The sports collective favors Brazil followed by Argentina, Germany or perhaps Spain (defending champs) to win it all. In other words, nobody is predicting an English title for this edition yet everybody is looking for something to blame. It’s become somewhat trendy to blame the </span><a href="http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb.html" style="color: #3f6e99; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">Premier League</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"> (England’s top professional Association Football league) for England’s national team downfall. Why? Because fewer than 1/3 of its players are actually English. Rampant speculation about this phenomenon has led to intense discussion at all levels of the sport in England - the same country in which the sport was invented. Let's try to settle this debate.</span><br />
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Best League in the World?</div>
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If we “follow the money” (for 2013) and judge a league not only by its top teams, but also the bottom-feeders and every team in between (in terms of money), then the Premier League is indeed the best (meaning: although Manchester City is an outlier, most of the league isn't as far behind, salary-wise as in other leagues[1]).</div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #585858; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 14.7839994430542px; text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">This article was written by the </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">the </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="color: #2f26d5; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">author</a><span style="line-height: 18px;"> of "</span>Graph of the Week" for <a href="http://statisticsviews.com/" target="_blank">Statistics Views</a> and</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> published on January 30, 2014. Read the </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/6164091/Swallowing-the-Bitter-Pill-England-the-Premier-League-and-the-World-Cup.html" target="_blank">rest</a><span style="line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/6164091/Swallowing-the-Bitter-Pill-England-the-Premier-League-and-the-World-Cup.html" target="_blank"> of this article</a> there.</span></span></i></div>
dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-35946805423170669422014-02-02T10:09:00.001-08:002014-02-02T10:09:46.204-08:00Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust: The Evolution of Passing in the NFL<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px;">
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"Three yards and a cloud of dust" (1) - that's how Woody Hayes described his "crunching, frontal assault of muscle against muscle", the offense that defined the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 50s and 60s. He went on say that, in regards to the passing game, "only three things can happen when you pass and two of them are bad". Hayes' colourful description of his offense springs directly from the original vision of American Football: run, run, run. Were he alive today, he would be shocked to see that the game has evolved into a philosophy of pass, pass, pass. This phenomenon has elevated one player position above all others: the quarterback. He has become king; all other players are subject to the whims of the crown. How did this happen? Let's review the game, its history and follow it through.</div>
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<u style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">The Most Popular Sport in the World</strong></u></div>
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American Football - simply known as “football” in the United States - generates the most revenue of any sporting franchise in the United States and indeed the world (2). In 2012, the <a href="http://www.nfl.com/" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">NFL</a> (National Football League) took in nearly $10 billion dollars (U.S.) compared to the <a href="http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb.html" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Premier League</a> at $3.3 billion. Still not impressed? Attendance numbers tell the same story: the NFL attracts nearly 4 million spectators more than the nearest competitor which, interestingly, is not what you might guess (hint: it’s not the Premier League and it’s not some other American sports league). If you guessed the <a href="http://www.bundesliga.com/en/" style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Bundesliga</a> association football (i.e. “soccer”) league in Germany, congratulations! That league holds the number two designation (3), which drew 13.8 million visitors during the 2011-12 season compared to 17.2 million for the NFL.</div>
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<i><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;">This article was written by the </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;">the </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">author</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"> of "</span>Graph of the Week" for Statistics Views and</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"> published on January 30, 2014. Read the </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/5799231/Three-Yards-and-A-Cloud-of-Dust-The-Evolution-of-Passing-in-the-NFL.html" target="_blank">rest</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/5799231/Three-Yards-and-A-Cloud-of-Dust-The-Evolution-of-Passing-in-the-NFL.html" target="_blank"> of this article</a> there.</span></span></i></div>
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dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-2774117495654198572013-11-03T15:03:00.001-08:002013-11-08T11:57:13.944-08:00The Rise, Fall and Rise of English Triple Crown Racing Speeds<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">A horse with a crimson “6” displayed on either side of its girth processes to the parade ring. There are people milling about, looking over “Six” as well as the other entrants for the 2013 running of the St. Leger Stakes. Alongside Six stands a very short, wiry man dressed in a matching crimson outfit. He speaks with the trainer in hushed tones, discussing race strategy. Six is alert; energy radiates from the tip of it’s brown and white snout to the end of its finely groomed tail. As the pair leave the ring and canter to the gate, Six snorts a couple of times as the gates are closed behind it. In short order, the other steeds are similarly lined up and a bell rings. And they’re off!</em></div>
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Horses are <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">fast</em>; according to the Guinness Book of World Records, <a href="http://the%20bloodhorse%2C%20sale%20forum:%20the%20effect%20of%20synthetic%20tracks%20%28accessed%20august%202%2C%202013%29%3B%20available%20from%20http//www.bloodhorse.com/horseracing/%20articles/57192/saleforumtheeffectofsyntheti%20ctracks." style="color: #3f6e99; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">the fastest average speed</a> ever attained by a horse is 70.76 kph (43.97 mph) (1). That record was obtained over two furlongs (about 402 meters or 1/4 of a mile). For distances more comparable to Triple Crown racing, the fastest average speed over ~2.4 km (1.5 miles) is 60.86 kph (37.82 mph)1. It stands to reason that the longer the distance, the slower the average speed will be although the track surface has a large impact on this (see Table 1).<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;">See the </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/5229831/The-Rise-Fall-and-Rise-of-English-Triple-Crown-Racing-Speeds.html" style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">rest</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"> of this article from the </span><a href="http://rhodestales.com/" style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">author</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"> of </span><a href="http://graphoftheweekorg/" style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Graph of the Week</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;"> on </span><a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/" style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Statistics Views</a><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px;">.</span></div>
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dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-82845617468465213362013-07-22T11:08:00.001-07:002013-11-08T11:58:09.997-08:00David vs. Goliath in Men's Professional Tennis<em style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">David dances lightly from side to side, his small feet stirring up wisps of dust from the clay surface. Twirling his racket in anticipation, he peers intently at his colossal foe hoping to spot some clue where the first serve will go. Across the net is a giant of a man, glaring at David with a stone-faced scowl. The crowd, once rowdy, is now silent; all eyes are riveted on Goliath as he bounces the ball on the rust-colored surface. Known for his amazing strength and exceptional height, they eagerly await his first monster serve.</em><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">See the <a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/feature/4950461/David-vs_-Goliath-in-Mens-Professional-Tennis.html" target="_blank">rest</a> of this article from the <a href="http://rhodestales.com/" target="_blank">author</a> of <a href="http://graphoftheweekorg/" target="_blank">Graph of the Week</a> on <a href="http://www.statisticsviews.com/" target="_blank">Statistics Views</a>.</span><br />
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<em style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;"><br /></em>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-60624668449852710642012-11-02T08:32:00.001-07:002012-11-02T08:32:41.162-07:00The New Madrid Fault - Past, Present and Future<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><u><b>New Madrid, Territory of Missouri, March 22, 1816</b></u></span><br />
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Dear Sir,</blockquote>
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In compliance with your request, I will now give you a history, as full in detail as the limits of the letter will permit, of the late awful visitation of Providence in this place and vicinity. </blockquote>
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On the 16th of December, 1811, about two o'clock, A.M., we were visited by a violent shock of an earthquake, accompanied by a very awful noise resembling loud but distant thunder, but more hoarse and vibrating, which was followed in a few minutes by the complete saturation of the atmosphere, with sulphurious vapor, causing total darkness. The screams of the affrighted inhabitants running to and fro, not knowing where to go, or what to do - the cries of the fowls and beasts of every species - the cracking of trees falling, and the roaring of the Mississippi - the current of which was retrograde for a few minutes, owing as is supposed, to an irruption in its bed -- formed a scene truly horrible.</blockquote>
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[<a href="http://www.hsv.com/genlintr/newmadrd/accnt1.htm" target="_blank">Remaining text</a> of this letter not shown] </blockquote>
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Your humble servant,<br />
Eliza Bryan</blockquote>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Courtesy of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slave_George" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a></td></tr>
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It is hard to truly imagine the disaster described by Miss Bryan*. Sadly, there were no camcorders at the time so there isn't any first-hand video revealing the pandemonium. However, the depiction above shows us something of the experience.<br />
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*Fantastic reading about Bryan's and other first-hand accounts can be found in Norma Bagnall's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0826210546/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0826210546&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" target="_blank">On Shaky Ground: The New Madrid Earthquakes of 1811-1812</a>.</blockquote>
<br />
Before this particular cataclysm, the <a href="http://www.cusec.org/earthquake-information/new-madrid-seismic-zone.html" target="_blank">New Madrid Seismic Zone</a> had been a real tempest a number of times. Similar in magnitude and destruction as seen above, it rocked the area in A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. As noted by Tuttle, et. al. in their publication "<a href="http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/people/schweig/BulletinoftheSeismological2002Tuttle.pdf" target="_blank">The Earthquake Potential of the New Madrid Seismic Zone</a>" (link opens PDF file):<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefaction" target="_blank">Liquefaction</a> data indicate that New Madrid events occurred every 500 ( +/- 300) years during the past 1200 years.</blockquote>
<br />
Well, let's see where things stand, on this bicentennial anniversary of the last 'big one.'<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><u><span style="font-family: inherit;">New Madrid Seismic Zone, Present Day (2012)</span></u></b></div>
<br />
Ever been to <a href="http://www.tn.gov/environment/parks/ReelfootLake/" target="_blank">Reelfoot Lake</a>?<br />
<br />
If you have, then you can thank the historic earthquake mentioned above and its brethren for creating it. During the winter of 1811-1812, four - count 'em - <b><i>four </i></b>- magnitude 7 or greater quakes hit the New Madrid area (there were many smaller aftershocks during the period). In case you're wondering where that is, it's a large region where the states of Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky all meet:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-n8Ks5h82_CI/UIoaUXZxzFI/AAAAAAAAAQg/4r8pd7dSOOI/s1600/new-madrid-seismic-zone-map-lg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="seismic zone" border="0" height="400" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-n8Ks5h82_CI/UIoaUXZxzFI/AAAAAAAAAQg/4r8pd7dSOOI/s400/new-madrid-seismic-zone-map-lg.jpg" title="new madrid fault area" width="340" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Courtesy of <a href="http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3071/pdf/FS09-3071.pdf" target="_blank">USGS</a> - link opens PDF file</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
For two hundred years, this area hasn't felt any quakes that compare to the whoppers mentioned above. Only two have registered higher than 5.0: a <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1895_10_31.php" target="_blank">6.6 quake</a> in 1895, and a <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/missouri/history.php" target="_blank">5.4 temblor</a> in 1968.<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: red;"><i><b>Breaking News</b></i></span>: Memphis <a href="http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2012/oct/29/memphis-feels-small-quake-centered-in-parkin-ark/" target="_blank">felt an earthquake</a> on Monday, October 29, 2012 at 7:39 a.m. Being magnitude 3.9, it went almost entirely unnoticed. The epicenter was located in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkin,_Arkansas" target="_blank">Parkin</a>, AR (about an hour's drive west from Memphis).</blockquote>
<br />
In 1974, monitoring equipment was installed in the area to track geological activity, allowing us to chart the resulting movement:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h4jVr072f6k/UJGmZzPASqI/AAAAAAAAASA/qj_0aioUXJ8/s1600/new_madrid_activity_v2_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="new madrid fault yearly maximum earthquake magnitude" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h4jVr072f6k/UJGmZzPASqI/AAAAAAAAASA/qj_0aioUXJ8/s640/new_madrid_activity_v2_publish.png" title="new madrid seismic zone annual earthquake size" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1 (click on graph to enlarge)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
When we examine this graph, a number of items become clear:<br />
<ol>
<li>The 1811-12 earthquakes were <i>big</i>. A sparsely-populated region prevented this quake from having more notoriety, otherwise it would rank up there with the San Francisco <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1906/18april/index.php" target="_blank">quake of 1906</a>.</li>
<li>The yearly median quake size in the New Madrid region is extremely low, hovering around magnitude 1.6. Even though there have been over 4000 quakes since 1974, only 2 have been large enough to be felt - the rest are tiny.</li>
<li>The largest measured annual earthquake in the New Madrid region has never risen past magnitude 5.0 since 1974.</li>
<li>There is a trend since 2001 indicating that the system is in equilibrium.</li>
</ol>
<div>
<br />
So what does all of that mean? Will there be another huge earthquake or not?<br />
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><u>New Madrid Fault - the Future</u></b></div>
<br />
We haven't seen any major quakes coming out of the New Madrid fault, despite <a href="http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/people/schweig/BulletinoftheSeismological2002Tuttle.pdf" target="_blank">predictions</a> as well as
<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B006M3XUDS/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B006M3XUDS&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" target="_blank">stories</a> about the next 'big one.' Perhaps the best remembered prognosticator was one <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iben_Browning" target="_blank">Iben Browning</a> who created a local uproar when he <a href="http://www.factorybelt.net/articles/madridmedia.htm" target="_blank">predicted a major earthquake</a> for the area which was to occur on December 2 or 3, 1990. The media frenzy which descended upon New Madrid during that time was unlike anything that town had probably ever seen:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q_Lni04pIBU/UI2yv7MSueI/AAAAAAAAARY/mBcSonRaP_Q/s1600/1990media2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q_Lni04pIBU/UI2yv7MSueI/AAAAAAAAARY/mBcSonRaP_Q/s1600/1990media2.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Courtesy of <a href="http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/comments.htm" target="_blank">Show-Me</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="color: red;"><b>Fact</b></span></i>: the author of this article lived in <a href="http://www.cityofmemphis.org/" target="_blank">Memphis</a> at the time of Browning's prediction and <i>insisted</i> that his landlord include insurance protection against earthquakes in the rental agreement. Who's to say I can't get worked up with the best of 'em?</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><br /></u>
<u>Is It Shutting Down?</u></div>
<br />
There is compelling evidence that the New Madrid fault is in fact, shutting down. <a href="http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth/" target="_blank">Seth Stein</a>, a geology professor at Northwestern, championed this notion in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/023115139X/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=023115139X&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" target="_blank">Disaster Deferred: A New View of Earthquake Hazards in the New Madrid Seismic Zone</a>. Using GPS data to measure land movement in the area, he discovered that it's barely moving:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Our GPS data for New Madrid didn't show any motion. Specifically, they showed that the ground was moving less than 2 millimeters per year. That's at least 18 times more slowly than the San Andreas. We were also pretty sure that the number would get much smaller if we kept measuring for a longer time. Already it was a lot slower than we'd expect if a big earthquake were coming any time soon."</blockquote>
<br />
Further, he goes on to suggest that predicting earthquakes in the area is problematic at best:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Geologists know surprisingly little about what's going on here. We don't know why earthquakes occur; when they started; if, when, and where future large earthquakes will occur; how serious a danger they pose; or how society should confront them."</blockquote>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Looking back at the first graph once again (Figure 1), the last thirty-eight years show the New Madrid fault displaying remarkable stability. However, that's a mere sliver of time in the grand history of this area, so cannot be relied upon as a predictor of future events.<br />
<br />
Perhaps looking at the <i>number</i> of quakes each year will yield something interesting:<br />
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H8jctFnvZ1A/UJFJGWtsXZI/AAAAAAAAARw/K5OIYdEViBM/s1600/new_madrid_median_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="new madrid median number of earthquakes annually" border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H8jctFnvZ1A/UJFJGWtsXZI/AAAAAAAAARw/K5OIYdEViBM/s640/new_madrid_median_publish.png" title="new madrid average number of earthquakes yearly" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2 (click on graph to enlarge)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
176 tremors per year (median) means that some sort of shock hits this region every two days or so. That seems like a lot until compared with the <a href="http://seismo.berkeley.edu/outreach/faq.html" target="_blank">San Andreas fault</a>, which checks in at <b>seventy tremors per day!</b> If anything, however, this would support the argument that the New Madrid fault is shutting down (if only we had these measurements dating back a thousand years...).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
It is rather interesting to note that for a few years in the 1990s the level of activity was extraordinarily low - even for this area. Ironically, this is the period during which Browning predicted a big quake would occur!<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<u>Or Is It Cranking Up?</u></div>
<br />
The <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/" target="_blank">United States Geological Survey</a> (USGS), as recently as 2008, will tell you that a large earthquake<a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/nepec/reports/NEPEC_NMSZ_expert_panel_report.pdf" target="_blank"> can arrive anytime</a> (link opens PDF file):<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The panel concludes that the New Madrid Seismic zone is at significant risk for damaging earthquakes that must be accounted for in urban planning and development.</blockquote>
<br />
That's not much of a prediction and in fact supports <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/023115139X/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=023115139X&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" target="_blank">Stein</a>'s statement that geologists know 'surprisingly little' about what might occur. In fact, if you asked just about <i>anybody</i> around these parts, they would say the same thing (albeit in more plain language!).<br />
<br />
Mainstream geologists will agree with the USGS. "<a href="http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/people/schweig/BulletinoftheSeismological2002Tuttle.pdf" target="_blank">The Earthquake Potential of the New Madrid Seismic Zone</a>" (link opens PDF file) states:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
On the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years, we are now entering the period during which the next 1811–1812-type event could occur.</blockquote>
<br />
And how big is that next period where an '1811-1812-type' event could occur? 800 - that's eight <i>hundred</i> - years. To be fair, time frames associated with faults span thousands of years (if not more), so it's difficult to achieve better precision.<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<b style="background-color: white;">Conclusion</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="background-color: white;"><br /></b></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">So what's the verdict? Is it shutting down or cranking up? The author hoped to find strong evidence one way or the other, but alas, it just isn't to be found - yet. Given the amount of data out there on the topic, one would think we knew everything about these things. In other words, your guess is as good as mine.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;">However, perhaps there is a correlation here that everybody missed - except for Eliza Bryan. Here is the post script to <a href="http://www.hsv.com/genlintr/newmadrd/accnt1.htm" target="_blank">her letter</a> mentioned above:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white;">There is one circumstance which I think worthy of remark. This country was formerly subject to very hard thunder; but for more than twelve months before the commencement of the earthquake there was none at all, and but very little since, a great part of which resembles subterraneous thunder. The shocks still continue, but are growing more light, and less frequent. -E.B.</span></blockquote>
<br />
Thunder? A predictor of earthquakes? I like it. Next time things get a little <i>too quiet</i> around your neighborhood, better be prepared for the next 'big one.'<br />
<br />
P.S. While the author does not believe any large earthquake is coming to the New Madrid area anytime soon (meaning within my lifetime), your opinion may differ. Feel free to purchase a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002H5Y9YY/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B002H5Y9YY&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" target="_blank">survival kit</a> in case of such an emergency.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Do other fault systems exhibit similar traits as the New Madrid system?<br />
2) What is <i>your</i> prediction on whether or not another devastating earthquake will occur in this region?<br />
3) What is the best way to predict earthquakes?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.ceri.memphis.edu/seismic/" target="_blank">http://www.ceri.memphis.edu/seismic/</a><br />
<br /></div>
<b>Related Information:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0826210546&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B006M3XUDS&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=023115139X&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B002H5Y9YY&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B000A0GYL4&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u>1st graph:</u>
ggplot() +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1972, xmax=2012, ymin=0, ymax=2.49), fill="gray", alpha=0.1) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1972, xmax=2012, ymin=2.5, ymax=3.99), fill="gray", alpha=0.25) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1972, xmax=2012, ymin=4, ymax=5.99), fill="gray", alpha=0.5) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1972, xmax=2012, ymin=6, ymax=7.99), fill="gray", alpha=0.75) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1972, xmax=2012, ymin=8, ymax=10), fill="gray", alpha=1.0) +
geom_text(aes(x=1972, y=2.5), label="Not felt", size=3, color="black", alpha=0.6, hjust=0, vjust=1) +
geom_text(aes(x=1972, y=4), label="Minor", size=3, color="black", alpha=0.6, hjust=0, vjust=1) +
geom_text(aes(x=1972, y=6), label="Damaging", size=3, color="black", alpha=0.6, hjust=0, vjust=1) +
geom_text(aes(x=1972, y=8), label="Devastating", size=3, color="black", alpha=0.6, hjust=0, vjust=1) +
geom_text(aes(x=1972, y=10), label="Hell on Earth", size=3, color="black", alpha=0.6, hjust=0, vjust=1) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1973, xend=1973, y=9.7, yend=8), size=0.2, color="black", alpha=0.6, linetype=2, arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.3, "cm"))) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1973, xend=1973, y=7.7, yend=6), size=0.2, color="black", alpha=0.6, linetype=2, arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.3, "cm"))) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1973, xend=1973, y=5.7, yend=4), size=0.2, color="black", alpha=0.6, linetype=2, arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.3, "cm"))) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1973, xend=1973, y=3.7, yend=2.5), size=0.2, color="black", alpha=0.6, linetype=2, arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.3, "cm"))) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1973, xend=1973, y=2.3, yend=0), size=0.2, color="black", alpha=0.6, linetype=2, arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.3, "cm"))) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1972, xend=2012, y=8.1, yend=8.1), size=1.1, color="red", alpha=0.8) +
geom_text(aes(x=1993, y=8.5), label="1811 New Madrid Earthquake (8.1)", size=6, color="red", alpha=0.8) +
geom_point(data=yearly.max, aes(x=Year, y=Max,color="Largest Annual Earthquake"), size=2, alpha=0.7) +
geom_line(data=yearly.max, aes(x=Year, y=Max, color="Largest Annual Earthquake"), size=1.2, alpha=0.5) +
geom_point(data=yearly.median, aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Median Annual Earthquake"), size=2, alpha=0.7) +
geom_line(data=yearly.median, aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Median Annual Earthquake"), size=1.2, alpha=0.5) +
ylab("Magnitude\n") +
xlab("Year") +
scale_y_continuous(limits=c(0, 10), breaks=seq(0,10,by=1)) +
scale_x_continuous(limits=c(1972, 2012), breaks=seq(1974, 2012, by=2)) +
scale_colour_manual(values=palette) +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "New Madrid Seismic Zone\nYearly Activity",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
legend.text = theme_text(size=10, family='Segoe'),
legend.position = "right",
panel.background = theme_blank(),
panel.grid.major = theme_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = theme_blank(),
panel.margin = unit(.1, "cm"),
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 0, 1, 1), "cm"))
<u>2nd graph:</u>
ggplot() +
geom_freqpoly(data=yearly.count, aes(x=Year, weight=UTC), color=alpha("dark blue", 0.7), size=1.1, binwidth=1, na.rm= TRUE) +
geom_segment(aes(x=1974, xend=2012, y=176, yend=176), size=1.1, color="red", alpha=0.8) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2007, xend=2007, y=115, yend=176), size=0.2, color="black", alpha=1, arrow = arrow(length = unit(0.3, "cm"))) +
geom_text(aes(x=2002, y=100), label="Median Number of\nEarthquakes per Year:", size=5, color="black", angle=0, alpha=0.8, hjust=0) +
geom_text(aes(x=2009.4, y=91), label="176", size=5, color="red", angle=0, alpha=1, hjust=0) +
ylab("Number of Earthquakes\n") +
xlab("Year") +
scale_y_continuous(limits=c(0, 300), breaks=seq(0,300,by=50)) +
scale_x_continuous(limits=c(1974, 2012), breaks=seq(1974, 2012, by=2)) +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "New Madrid Seismic Zone\nYearly Frequency",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
panel.grid.major = theme_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 3, 1, 1), "cm"))
</span></pre>
</div>
dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-41506682963613258782012-08-22T09:58:00.001-07:002012-08-22T09:58:49.091-07:002014 Winter Olympics: Home Court Advantage - Russia<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7uBO2xPRcsA/UDK9ggk706I/AAAAAAAAAOk/8ftP7oSNRF8/s1600/winter_olympics_home_advanage_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="winter olympics home country advantage" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7uBO2xPRcsA/UDK9ggk706I/AAAAAAAAAOk/8ftP7oSNRF8/s640/winter_olympics_home_advanage_publish.png" title="winter Olympics host advantage history" width="640" /></a></div>
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"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."<br />
-- Winston Churchill, <a href="http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/RusnEnig.html" target="_blank">radio address</a> in 1939<br />
<br />
A couple of weeks ago, <a href="http://graphoftheweek.org/" target="_blank">Graph of the Week</a> published an <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/08/summer-olympics-home-court-advantage.html" target="_blank">article</a> describing the significant improvement in medals won by the host country as opposed to how that country 'normally' performs when not hosting. We concluded that Great Britain (the host country) would end up with between 53 and 70 medals (roughly 1.5 - 2.0 times more than 'normal'). As it turns out, they won 65.<br />
<br />
The Winter Olympics may not be until 2014, but why not make another prediction for the host country? So, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia" target="_blank">Russia</a>, let's take a look at you and see what we can surmise.<br />
<br />
<i>Fact</i>: Russia has <i>never</i> <a href="http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-olympic-map.htm" target="_blank">hosted</a> the Winter Olympics - nor had the Soviet Union. That seems a bit odd seeing that the Russians usually do well in these games. There is probably another <a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000Y754XC/ref=as_li_tf_til?tag=graofthewee-20&camp=14573&creative=327641&linkCode=as1&creativeASIN=B000Y754XC&adid=178N7WZYAZB4CAHNDWEX&&ref-refURL=" target="_blank">story</a> lurking around there, but we'll let someone else field that one.<br />
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<a name='more'></a></div>
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<b>Friends and Family Winter Plan</b><br />
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Just like the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics also spur athletes on to perform better than ever. Rather than jumping, throwing and running, however, <a href="http://www.olympic.org/sports" target="_blank">these games</a> feature skiing, skating, sledding and of course, hockey. The graph above clearly shows this effect from all modern-era Winter Olympics.<br />
<br />
<i>Fact</i>: The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_Olympic_Games" target="_blank">modern-era</a> Winter Olympics didn't exist until 1924 - here's why, according to the <a href="http://www.olympic.org/Documents/Reports/EN/en_report_668.pdf" target="_blank">International Olympic Committee</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"When Coubertin revived the Olympic Games, only summer sports were included. In the 1920’s, however, snow and ice sports began to enjoy soaring popularity. A number of IOC members decided to react to this new phenomenon. In 1924, it was decided to hold an International Winter Sports Week in Chamonix (France): 258 athletes from 16 countries (mainly in Europe and North America) attended.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The week was a great success and, two years later, it was retroactively named the first Olympic Winter Games. The future of an Olympic event dedicated exclusively to snow and ice sports was assured."</blockquote>
<br />
Just like the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics have also had their share of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Games_scandals_and_controversies" target="_blank">scandals</a>, controversies and boycotts which affect the results (and any statistics derived from those results).<br />
<br />
For the sake of consistency, we'll re-quote what was stated in the Summer Olympic article about the well-known 'home court advantage' <a href="http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~jamieson/JJ_JASP.pdf" target="_blank">noted by Harvard researcher</a> Jeremy P. Jamieson, PhD, in the <a href="http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/apl/index.aspx" target="_blank">Journal of Applied Psychology</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"A significant advantage for home teams was observed across all conditions (Mp = .604); and time era, season length, game type, and sport moderated the effect."</blockquote>
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<b>More Snow, More Events</b></div>
<br />
While the number of total events in the Winter Olympics is small when compared to the Summer Olympics, this number has risen steadily over the years. Looking at the graph below, a rather sharp increase in the number of events starts in 1992, continuing through 2010. Back in 1924, there were only 16 events, but that number will rise to 98 for the 2014 games.<br />
<br />
And like their summer counterpart, this provides more opportunity for the local fans to show up and cheer on their athletes, providing a mental edge in all events for the host country.<br />
<br />
But, like the summer games, it's difficult for any country to be proficient in <i>every</i> event. This is especially true for countries with financial difficulties or environments not conducive to Olympic sport (although that doesn't stop the <a href="http://www.jamaicabobsleighteam.com/" target="_blank">Jamaicans</a>!). So, while there are more opportunities to have the home court advantage, there are also more opportunities for <i>other</i> countries to win.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b3TGD7QsHtI/UDK9zcGSSyI/AAAAAAAAAOs/Wo-s7zZmSOc/s1600/winter_olympics_events_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="winter olympics increasing number of events games" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b3TGD7QsHtI/UDK9zcGSSyI/AAAAAAAAAOs/Wo-s7zZmSOc/s640/winter_olympics_events_publish.png" title="winter olympics number of events history" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Everybody's Got a Sled Dog in the Race</b></div>
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Not as many countries participate in the Winter Olympics when compared to the Summer Olympics. In fact, 28 countries (out of 80) won medals in 2010 (compared to 79 countries (out of 204) winning medals in the 2012 Summer Olympics). That being said, the number of countries which win medals has steadily increased from 10 to the aforementioned 28 as shown in the chart below.<br />
<br />
Since more countries are producing Olympic-level athletes, it follows that the host country's medal count would be reduced due to the stiffer competition. While that was true for the Summer Olympics, it isn't very true for the Winter Olympics. In the first half of the modern Winter Olympic era (through 1968), the host country winning percentage was about <b>10%</b>. During the second half (since 1972), that percentage only dropped to <b>9%</b> (for comparison purposes, these percentages were 24% and<b> </b>9%, respectively, for the <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/08/summer-olympics-home-court-advantage.html" target="_blank">Summer Olympics</a>).<br />
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So, while the smaller countries are winning more medals, they aren't doing so at a rate that significantly affects the host country's winning percentage.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZixbD3f_7to/UDK-FeQ35FI/AAAAAAAAAO0/1lWhYPIugis/s1600/winter_olympics_medal_countries_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="winter olympics number of medal countries" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZixbD3f_7to/UDK-FeQ35FI/AAAAAAAAAO0/1lWhYPIugis/s640/winter_olympics_medal_countries_publish.png" title="winter olympics increasing number of countries entered" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Is the Host-Country Advantage as Strong in the Winter Olympics?</b></div>
<br />
In our <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/08/summer-olympics-home-court-advantage.html" target="_blank">previous article</a> about the Summer Olympics, we estimated that the host country advantage for those games was between 1.5 and 2 times better than what we considered 'normal' (using the last three Olympics to determine 'normal').<br />
<br />
Does that hold true for the Winter Olympics?<br />
<br />
No, not to that degree.<br />
<br />
This median winning percentage of all host countries - when hosting - is approximated at 7.7%. For these same countries, that drops to 5.0% when not hosting (for the Summer Olympics that is 8.5% and 3.4%, respectively). When attempting to predict how many medals Russia will win using this method, we take 7.7% of the estimated 294 medals awarded (usually more due to ties) which will net them 23 medals.<br />
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However, the Russians <i>already</i> get about 6.7% of the medals (when averaged) when taking the last three Winter Olympics into consideration:<br />
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<u>Recent Russian Winter Olympic Medal Percentages:</u></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellspacing="15">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Medals Awarded</th>
<th>% of Total</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2010</td>
<td align="center">15</td>
<td align="center">5.0 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2006</td>
<td align="center">22</td>
<td align="center">8.7 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2002</td>
<td align="center">13</td>
<td align="center">6.4 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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So, the host country advantage <i>for Russia</i>, using the above method, is only 1 percentage point higher (they would get 23 medals instead of 20 for 2014). That doesn't seem like much of an advantage. We suspect that they will obtain more than 23 medals. Or perhaps the host country advantage isn't as great for the 'big dogs' in the Olympics - those that finish with high medal counts every year. <br />
<br />
If we multiply the expected amount (when not hosting) by 1.5 as <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/7/Clarke.ppt" target="_blank">pointed out</a> by Stephen Clarke for the Summer Olympics, Russia would end up with about 30 medals for 2014.<br />
<br />
In this <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CF0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ekonomikaamanagement.cz%2FgetFile.php%3FfileKey%3DCEJVB0NUCAdVCEZIU1VHB0MIUUMEBAVDVFVWQ1VUBAVGQ1VCXgQFBERIREBAYA%3D%3D%26lang%3Dcz&ei=Rf40UL2FDImo8QTa64CACw&usg=AFQjCNF5plom6UEAbDVfF8QL9Mu4mLKpCA&sig2=2us7xwqLZX9T_wYDlhan-A" target="_blank">excellent paper</a> written specifically for the Winter Olympics, authors Madeline Andreff and Wladimir Andreff predict Russia will win between 21 and 27 medals, using 24 as the target. Using some very sophisticated techniques and taking into account a great many variables (like economic indicators, government types, etc.), their research is probably more accurate than anything else floating around out there. That being said, they summarize any attempt to predict Olympic performance nicely:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"For the time being our recommendation is: do not bet that Russia will win 24 medals at Sochi Winter Olympics! </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
But, if Russia makes it with more than 27 medals you would be allowed to conclude that she performed very well, better than expected with an economic model, and that this must be due to exceptional efforts of Russian athletes and coaches before and during Sochi Games. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If Russia would win less than 21 medals, you could join Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev in complaining that the Russian winter sports squad should really have done better – or that it was unexpectedly bad lucky."</blockquote>
Couldn't have said it better myself.<br />
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<b style="background-color: white;">Conclusion</b></div>
<div>
<br />
As concluded in our Summer Olympics article, there are many attempts to quantify home-court advantage. The best ones will give a range of performance rather than a specific number due to the large amount of variables involved. And as the Andreffs point out above, do not bet that Russia will win 24 medals on the nose. Rather, enjoy watching the Olympics for what they represent.<br />
<br />
Of course, it <i>is</i> fun to play around with predictions, so Graph of the Week will use a combination of the above efforts and estimate that Russia will win between 24 and 31 medals. This is a bit higher than most predictions, but then again Russia has never had the home country advantage in the Winter Olympics. We suspect they will rise to the challenge with a chance to grab even more.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Why has Russia (or the Soviet Union) never hosted the Winter Olympics in the past?<br />
2) Will future warfare and politics affect the Olympic games as in the past?<br />
3) Will Russia's performance decline in 2018?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.databaseolympics.com/">http://www.databaseolympics.com/</a>
<br />
<a href="http://www.olympic.org/">http://www.olympic.org/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0275990303&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1845134915&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1594850631&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1178711439&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B000Y754XC&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
1st graph:
ggplot(olympics.melt.hosting.frame, aes(x=Country, weight=(value*100), fill=variable, group=variable)) +
geom_bar(position="dodge", color="black") +
ylab("Percentage (%) of Medals Won\n") +
xlab("Host Country") +
scale_fill_manual(values=palette) +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Winter Olympics:\nHost Country Advantage",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob, title="library(png)",
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe', angle=90),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 1, 1, 1), "cm"))
2nd graph (3rd graph code is the same in structure):
ggplot() +
geom_bar(data=event.counts.frame, aes(x=factor(Year), weight=Events), fill="dark red", color="black", alpha=0.6) +
geom_smooth(data=event.counts.frame, aes(x=factor(Year), y=Events, group=1), color="blue", method="lm", fill=NA, size=1) +
ylab("Number of Events") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Winter Olympics:\nNumber of Events",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob, title="library(png)",
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 4, 1, 1), "cm"))
</span></pre>
</div>
dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-31993677658947782372012-08-09T14:40:00.001-07:002012-08-13T11:03:46.670-07:002012 Summer Olympics: Home Court Advantage - How Will the Brits Perform?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e6p7B_YZb9U/UCGDYJDKuiI/AAAAAAAAANs/x3dpS1KfjM0/s1600/host_country_advantage_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="olympics host country home cooking" border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e6p7B_YZb9U/UCGDYJDKuiI/AAAAAAAAANs/x3dpS1KfjM0/s640/host_country_advantage_publish.png" title="olympics host country advantage" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
The Olympics are a big deal on a global scale. How big? Perhaps <a href="http://www.paularadcliffe.com/" target="_blank">Paula Radcliffe</a> (an English long distance runner) said it best:</div>
</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: left;">
"I have achieved a lot and I'm grateful for that - I'm just a bit greedy because I want to add the Olympics. It's once every four years - everyone wants it and very few people get it."</div>
</blockquote>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
Take that sentiment and factor in competing in the Olympics in your home country. Talk about intense!</div>
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<b>Friends and Family Plan</b><br />
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<div style="text-align: left;">
What inspires an athlete to perform better in front of a home crowd? How is it possible to jump a little higher, throw a little harder or run a little faster when he/she would otherwise not do so? The graph above shows this effect using the host countries' medal percentage from all <a href="http://www.olympic.org/athens-1896-summer-olympics" target="_blank">modern-era</a> Summer Olympics. There is a sharp increase in the total number of medals won (as a percentage of all medals awarded) by the host country as opposed to when they are not hosting. It should be noted that some of the results are heavily skewed due to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Games_scandals_and_controversies" target="_blank">boycotts</a> (which further increased the home countries medal percentage significantly) and other factors described later in this article.<br />
<br />
The 'home court advantage' has been studied previously and is a well-known phenomenon. In fact, it appears to be present across all sports as <a href="http://www.wjh.harvard.edu/~jamieson/JJ_JASP.pdf" target="_blank">noted by Harvard researcher</a> Jeremy P. Jamieson, PhD, in the <a href="http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/apl/index.aspx" target="_blank">Journal of Applied Psychology</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"A significant advantage for home teams was observed across all conditions (Mp = .604); and time era, season length, game type, and sport moderated the effect."</blockquote>
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Piling On the Events</b></div>
<br />
Coupling the home court advantage with an increasing number of events results in more opportunities for the host country to utilize this edge. Back in 1896, there were less than 50 total events in the Summer Olympics. As the chart below reveals, that number has climbed to over 300 (<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/15/london-olympics-numbers-athletes-_n_1599594.html" target="_blank">302</a>, to be precise). Therefore, assuming that local fans show up to most events, then there is more opportunity to cheer on the home athletes.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, it's difficult for any country to be proficient in <i>every</i> event. This is especially true for countries with financial difficulties or environments not conducive to Olympic sport. So, while there are more opportunities to have the home court advantage, there are also more opportunities for <i>other</i> countries to win.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6mnkPuteaas/UCGH2PUKBeI/AAAAAAAAAOA/cl0mOGC3neI/s1600/summer_olympic_events_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="summer olympics number of events increasing all time" border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6mnkPuteaas/UCGH2PUKBeI/AAAAAAAAAOA/cl0mOGC3neI/s640/summer_olympic_events_publish.png" title="summer olympics number of events " width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Everybody's Got a Horse in the Race</b></div>
<br />
And win those other countries do: not only have the number of events increased, but the number of countries who are winning medals has also increased - a lot. As shown in the chart below, this number has increased from eleven in 1896 to over 80 in 2008 (currently this number sits at 79 in the 2012 Summer Olympics as of August 9, 2012 - only a few days left to go).<br />
<br />
Since more countries are producing Olympic-level athletes, it follows that the host country's medal count would be reduced due to the stiffer competition. This appears to be true since the winning percentage of the host country in the first half (through 1956) of the modern Olympic era was much higher (<b>24%</b>) than the second half (<b>9%</b>).<br />
<br />
Granted, most of the countries winning medals only win a small percentage, but overall it does take away from the major players.<br />
<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UgNZZThR8Do/UCGICok2bdI/AAAAAAAAAOI/mIreiQBnul8/s1600/summer_olympic_countries_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="summer olympics increasing number of countries winning all time" border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UgNZZThR8Do/UCGICok2bdI/AAAAAAAAAOI/mIreiQBnul8/s640/summer_olympic_countries_publish.png" title="summer olympics number of countries" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>So How Much, Exactly, Is This Host Country Advantage?</b></div>
<br />
No one really knows the answer to that question. There are many attempts at quantifying it (giving it an actual number), but all of those are estimates. Further complicating matters are the issues cited above: the number of events, boycotts, and more medal winners. As <a href="http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/research-insights/assets/olympic-medals-2012-final.pdf" target="_blank">PricewaterhouseCoopers</a> (that's how it's spelled) states:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"It is not surprising that the model cannot explain all the variation in medal shares across countries as this will also be influenced by individual athletic performances, as well as by policy-related factors (including funding)."</blockquote>
<br />
This can be illustrated when using the median winning percentage of all host countries - when hosting - is approximated at 8.5%. For these same countries, that drops to 3.4% when not hosting. When attempting to predict how many medals Great Britain will win using this method, we take 8.5% of the estimated 906 medals awarded (usually more due to ties) which will net them 77 medals.<br />
<br />
That seems a bit high for Great Britain, though, doesn't it? That's not an insult directed at them; rather, recent Summer Olympics with about the same number of events show that they get around 35 in total:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<u>Recent Great Britain Summer Olympic Medal Percentages:</u></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" border="0" cellspacing="15">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Medals Awarded</th>
<th>% of Total</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2008</td>
<td align="center">47</td>
<td align="center">4.9 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2004</td>
<td align="center">30</td>
<td align="center">3.2 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center">2000</td>
<td align="center">28</td>
<td align="center">3.0 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Therefore, it's probably best to examine each country individually to more closely estimate the host country advantage because each country doesn't have the same profile and number of athletes. So, applying a universal quantifier doesn't work all that well. That being said, <a href="http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/7/Clarke.ppt" target="_blank">Stephen Clarke</a> estimated that host countries will perform about 1.5 times better than 'normal' (which itself is difficult to quantify due to above cited reasons) when hosting the Olympics.<br />
<br />
If that is true, then Great Britain will net about 53 medals (<a href="http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/research-insights/assets/olympic-medals-2012-final.pdf" target="_blank">PricewaterhouseCoopers</a> predicts 54 medals) at the 2012 Summer Olympics, using the last three editions to calculate 'normal' (35 medals). As of this writing (August 9, 2012), they are already at 51 with just a few days ago.<br />
<br />
That being said, Great Britain was already experiencing an upward trend in Olympic performance, so one cannot really tell if being the host country is truly providing an advantage or the Brits are just getting much better at the games.<br />
<br />
Only time will tell.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="background-color: white;">Conclusion</b></div>
<div>
<br />
A quick search on Google will reveal several attempts at quantifying the host country advantage in the Olympics. Like any sport, however, if we knew the outcome what would be the point of watching? It's fun to make predictions, but they shouldn't be taken too seriously in this sort of context (perhaps oddsmakers would disagree).<br />
<br />
That being said, it certainly seems that the host country advantage lies between 1.5 and 2 times more medals than what might be considered 'normal.' Therefore, Great Britain will have won between 53 and 70 medals by the closing ceremonies.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Will smaller countries be able to host future Summer Olympics?<br />
2) Will future warfare and politics affect the Olympic games as in the past?<br />
3) Will Great Britain's performance decline in 2016?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.databaseolympics.com/">http://www.databaseolympics.com/</a>
<br />
<a href="http://www.olympic.org/">http://www.olympic.org/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1845136950&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1426302908&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=184542722X&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B007OLFMLK&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1848020589&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
1st graph:
ggplot(olympics.melt.hosting.frame, aes(x=Country, weight=(value*100), fill=variable, group=variable)) +
geom_bar(position="dodge", color="black") +
ylab("Percentage (%) of Medals Won\n") +
xlab("Host Country") +
scale_fill_manual(values=palette) +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Summer Olympics:\nHost Country Advantage",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob, title="library(png)",
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe', angle=90),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 1, 1, 1), "cm"))
2nd graph (3rd graph code is the same in structure):
ggplot() +
geom_bar(data=event.counts.frame, aes(x=factor(Year), weight=Events), fill="dark red", color="black", alpha=0.6) +
geom_smooth(data=event.counts.frame, aes(x=factor(Year), y=Events, group=1), color="blue", method="lm", fill=NA, size=1) +
ylab("Number of Events") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Summer Olympics:\nNumber of Events",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob, title="library(png)",
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 4, 1, 1), "cm"))
</span></pre>
</div>
dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-56988217547937045132012-07-19T12:26:00.001-07:002012-07-19T12:26:40.340-07:00Health Care Costs - Part 3, "Why You Are Paying More"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-d0YV4HzEicg/UAcmkITOtmI/AAAAAAAAAL4/_mFgRAY4Kl4/s1600/malpractice_dollars_awarded_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="yearly dollars awarded malpractice" border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-d0YV4HzEicg/UAcmkITOtmI/AAAAAAAAAL4/_mFgRAY4Kl4/s640/malpractice_dollars_awarded_publish.png" title="estimated dollars spent malpractice cases" width="640" /></a></div>
<b>Malpractice - A Booming Industry?</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Perhaps authors Frank Sloan, Randall Bovbjerg and Penny Githens capture it best from their book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0195069595/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0195069595&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" style="background-color: white; text-align: center;">Insuring Medical Malpractice</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0195069595" style="background-color: white; border: none !important; margin: 0px !important; text-align: center;" width="1" />:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"If aging Doctor Kildare were to return to medical practice today, having been in suspended animation since the early 1960s, he would find enormous changes in his malpractice insurance coverage. The first surprise is that the physician's malpractice coverage has become so important. No longer can he practice at his hospital without it. And much higher limits are needed to protect his practice and other assets against the financial risks of lawsuits."</blockquote>
This <a href="http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/thomasson.insurance.health.us" target="_blank">history of health insurance</a> is a story of evolution, revealing ecological niches in the system allowing for the growth of malpractice lawyers and casualty insurers. <span style="background-color: white;">In other words, doctors now have to protect themselves against financial ruin by purchasing malpractice insurance.</span><br />
<br />
A quick glance at the above graph will quickly show that f<span style="background-color: white;">rom 1990-2004 the dollar amounts awarded in malpractice cases rose significantly, with the largest gain coming in a five year period from 2000 - 2004. The publicity surrounding these astonishingly high payouts was intense, resulting in various forms of tort reform implementing caps on malpractice payouts in some states. Since then, the total amount awarded of medical malpractice claims have decreased.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Yet health care costs still continue to rise.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><b>Survival of the Fittest</b></span></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
How then, can falling malpractice awards be related to rising health care costs? As noted in the conclusion of <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-2-unhealthy.html" target="_blank">part 2</a> of this series, the health care system is complex and interdependent on numerous variables. In this case, it can take several years before the industry can recognize a trend (positive or adverse).<br />
<br />
Insurance companies need to build a pool of money in order to be prepared for claims that will inevitably follow. This is done in two major ways: 1) premiums and 2) investments. Not unlike a bank, they will use some of the money gathered from premiums and invest it so that more money can be earned, thus allowing them to enact various business strategies including "price wars." In this case, larger companies with larger pools of money can force smaller companies out of business by offering low rates at a loss long enough to snuff out the competition.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">It's a race of attrition.</span><br />
<br />
Couple that with a large increase in malpractice payouts (as shown above) and the net result is twofold: 1) fewer casualty insurers and 2) higher premiums enacted for those left standing. All of that lost money has to be recovered somehow and it falls on the customers themselves to provide it - the very same customers who caused it by winning large sums of money in malpractice cases.<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DwLMD29w5d0/UAYuVnHw4HI/AAAAAAAAALs/SOoW1hhU1GE/s1600/combined_ratio_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="yearly trend performance casualty insurers" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DwLMD29w5d0/UAYuVnHw4HI/AAAAAAAAALs/SOoW1hhU1GE/s640/combined_ratio_publish.png" title="combined ratios malpractice insurance companies" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>If That Wasn't Enough...</b></div>
<br />
The above graph shows just how bad things got for casualty insurers. The <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/combinedratio.asp" target="_blank">combined ratio</a> was well over 100% for several years, peaking in 2001. For every percentage point above 100 a company paid out more than what it took in, all factors considered (except investments).<br />
<br />
So, in 1991 when the combined ratio peaked at 154%, the industry as a whole was paying out $1.54 for each $1.00 that it took in. <span style="background-color: white;">Granted, this does not consider investment income. However, the return on investments for these companies have shown a slight decline for the past few years resulting in less auxiliary income for their reserves. Less money in reserve means less money for investments, which means less money in reserves and - you get the picture. The bottom line is that it will take quite a while before they can build those reserves back up - something which they are still attempting to do (in an unstable economy at that).</span><br />
<br />
And what is the quickest way to build those reserves? Higher premiums, which explains why heath care costs are continuing to rise even after the peak of disaster passed several years ago.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="background-color: white;">Conclusion</b></div>
<div>
<br />
<span style="text-align: left;">While researching health care costs, this author found himself in a world he would not like to visit again anytime soon. It's a tricky business - one that deserves far more attention that what is provided here. The above graphs do indeed correlate - almost exactly - with the largest rise in health care costs as noted in <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-1-problem.html" target="_blank">part 1</a>. Therefore - and despite what some senators and other media might suggest otherwise - malpractice payouts and aggressive business practices appear to be root causes. In the former, we did this to ourselves - after all, juries are made up of our 'peers' who thought that these high rewards were justified. Regarding the latter - when insurance companies become too involved in eliminating competition, the costs of doing inevitably end up being shouldered by their customers (we win in the short run and lose in the long).</span><br />
<span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
As a side note, the scenario described here in parts <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-1-problem.html" target="_blank">1</a>, <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-2-unhealthy.html" target="_blank">2</a> and 3 is indicative of a repeating pattern. It would not surprise this author if premiums decreased for a while before this scenario plays out again. If that is indeed true, perhaps we can all enjoy lower rates in the upcoming years until the next cycle hits. <span style="background-color: white;">Further, this is the time for new casualty insurers to spring up and re-populate the ecosystem, hopefully bringing fresh ideas and technology resulting in lower costs for all of us.</span></div>
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) The time is ripe for innovative companies to shake-up the health care system - are they out there?<br />
2) Is there a checks and balances system for lawyers and judges to prevent fraud?<br />
3) Are other countries suffering the same fate as the U.S. with regards to health care costs?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://www.scha.org/">http://www.scha.org/</a></span><br />
<a href="http://www.npdb-hipdb.hrsa.gov/">http://www.npdb-hipdb.hrsa.gov/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0471492272&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0195069595&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0314195238&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0071592083&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=146642107X&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
1st graph:
ggplot(malpractice.melt.frame, aes(x=as.integer(substr(variable,2,5)), y=as.numeric(value)*as.numeric(Amount), color=Malpractice.Payment.Range)) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1990, xmax=2000, ymin=0, ymax=5000000000), fill="red", color="gray", alpha=0.002) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=2000, xmax=2004, ymin=0, ymax=5000000000), fill="red", color="gray", alpha=0.01) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=2004, xmax=2011, ymin=0, ymax=5000000000), fill="green", color="gray", alpha=0.005) +
geom_text(x=1994.5, y=4900000000, label="(Combined Ratios Rising)", size=3, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=2002, y=4900000000, label="(Combined Ratios Peak)", size=3, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=2007.5, y=4900000000, label="(Combined Ratios Falling)", size=3, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=1990, y=1500000000, label="$1,515,750,000", size=2.5) +
geom_text(x=2011.2, y=2200000000, label="$2,280,000,000", size=2.5) +
geom_text(x=1990, y=440000000, label="$491,250,000", size=2.5) +
geom_text(x=2011.2, y=2700000000, label="$2,467,500,000", size=2.5) +
geom_text(x=1990, y=5000000, label="$57,000,000", size=2.5) +
geom_text(x=2011.2, y=310000000, label="$381,000,000", size=2.5) +
#geom_point() +
geom_line(aes(group=Malpractice.Payment.Range), size=1.2) +
scale_color_manual(breaks=c(
"< $500,000",
"$500,000 - $2,000,000",
"> $2,000,000"),
values=newPalette) +
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0,as.numeric(5000000000)), labels = mysep) +
ylab("Estimated Total Dollars Spent\n (using median value in range)\n") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Estimated Dollars Awarded in Malpractice Cases\n",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 1, 1, 1), "cm"))
2nd graph:
ggplot(malpractice.ratios.frame, aes(x=year, y=combined.ratio)) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1995, xmax=2010, ymin=40, ymax=69.99), fill="green", alpha=0.09) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1995, xmax=2010, ymin=130, ymax=160), fill="red", alpha=0.09) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1995, xmax=2010, ymin=70, ymax=99.99), fill="green", alpha=0.02) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1995, xmax=2010, ymin=100, ymax=129.99), fill="red", alpha=0.02) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1995, xmax=2010, ymin=40, ymax=160), fill="gray", alpha=0.01) +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=1999.99, xmax=2000.01, ymin=40, ymax=160), fill="dark gray") +
geom_rect(aes(xmin=2003.99, xmax=2004.01, ymin=40, ymax=160), fill="dark gray") +
geom_point(size=3) +
geom_line(aes(group=1), size=2) +
geom_text(x=1995.3, y=65, label="Best", size=5, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=1995.35, y=95, label="Good", size=5, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=1995.25, y=125, label="Bad", size=5, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=1995.4, y=155, label="Worst", size=5, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=2002, y=50, label="(Peak Malpractice Payout Years)", size=3, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=1997.5, y=50, label="(Rising Malpractice Payout Years)", size=3, color="dark blue") +
geom_text(x=2007, y=50, label="(Falling Malpractice Payout Years)", size=3, color="dark blue") +
scale_y_continuous(limits=c(40,160)) +
ylab("Combined Ratio (%)\n") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Combined Ratios for Casualty Insurers\n",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 3, 1, 1), "cm"))
</span></pre>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-9070731466700382332012-07-11T11:39:00.000-07:002012-07-19T12:31:33.359-07:00Health Care Costs - Part 2, "Unhealthy Things Not Related to the Problem"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TnGHC5ekj9U/T_tiK6djBcI/AAAAAAAAAKU/vekgww-XtCo/s1600/smoking_percentage_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TnGHC5ekj9U/T_tiK6djBcI/AAAAAAAAAKU/vekgww-XtCo/s640/smoking_percentage_publish.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Lighting Up</b></div>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Way back in the day, folks believed that smoking was not only cool but also completely safe. As Marcel Danesi states in his book </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0230605230/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0230605230" style="background-color: white;">Of Cigarettes, High Heels, and Other Interesting Things, Second Edition: An Introduction to Semiotics (Semaphores and Signs)</a><span style="background-color: white;">:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0230605230" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" /><br />
"American society believed that smoking was not only highly fashionable, but that is also relieved tensions and even produced health benefits."</blockquote>
At least this explains why smoking was performed with such "<a href="http://selfstyledsiren.blogspot.com/2008/11/ten-things-i-love-about-old-movies.html" target="_blank">unapologetic gusto</a>" in those old movies. Alas, these poor souls knew not what awaited them later in life. Often there is a high price to be paid for fashion - sometimes in monetary terms, sometimes in emotional terms and unfortunately, sometimes in physical terms. Danesi goes on to point this out:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"However, epidemiologists started noticing around 1930 that lung cancer - rare before the twentieth century - had been increasing dramatically."</blockquote>
Due to the overwhelming evidence linking <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/lung/basic_info/risk_factors.htm" target="_blank">smoking and lung cancer</a>, the U.S. <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/nixon-signs-legislation-banning-cigarette-ads-on-tv-and-radio" target="_blank">imposed a ban on tobacco advertising</a> on TV and Radio while also forcing manufacturers to put a warning label on the packages.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>But It's Not Related to Increasing Insurance Rates</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
Apparently the warnings, bans, <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips/resources/videos/" target="_blank">anti-smoking campaigns</a> and perhaps common sense have led to a gradual decline in smoking. Taking a look at the above chart, around 42% of the population smoked in the early 70s. Since then, that percentage has steadily declined to its present levels around 19%.<br />
<br />
As noted in <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-1-problem.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a> of this series, however, average insurance rates are surpassing inflation. Unless one were to speculate on an inverse relationship between smoking and insurance rates (due to <a href="http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/quit-smoking/AN01437" target="_blank">weight gain</a> perhaps), then one must conclude that the smokers in America are not contributing to the rising costs of health care.<br />
<br />
This doesn't mean that smokers aren't paying more for insurance - <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11394043/ns/health-addictions/t/smokers-paying-extra-health-insurance/" target="_blank">they are</a>. In essence, they fork out the extra cash to support their habit in the form of increased rates unique to them. So, if an insurance company claims that <i>everybody's</i> rates are higher due to smokers, feel free to point them to this article.<br />
<br />
From the data gathered here, rising insurance rates <i>should not</i> be related to the smoking public.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j7XlGSy4uRA/T_tiQtvxzUI/AAAAAAAAAKc/yVo_sDCihvQ/s1600/uninsured_americans_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j7XlGSy4uRA/T_tiQtvxzUI/AAAAAAAAAKc/yVo_sDCihvQ/s640/uninsured_americans_publish.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Living On the Edge</b></div>
<br />
There are many millions of Americans without health insurance. Going back in time to the turn of the 20th century, virtually <i>nobody</i> had health insurance. A number of factors could be cited for this <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/03/us-soldiers-died-from-what.html" target="_blank">(lack of medical advancement</a>, low healthcare costs and perhaps the lack of need at the time), but it remains a fact.<br />
<br />
Things certainly have changed.<br />
<br />
In the United States today, the percentage of uninsured has remained very steady at around 16%. Life for those individuals is a bit different from those holding insurance. Mar<span style="background-color: white;">k L. Friedman, M.D. and </span><span style="background-color: white;">Donna Raskin, in their book </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1592577342/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1592577342" style="background-color: white;">The Complete Idiot's Guide to Medical Care for the Uninsured</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=1592577342" style="background-color: white; border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />, describe it as follows:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Today in the United States the quality of one's health depends not only on his family history and how well he takes care of himself but also on whether or not he has insurance."</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"In general, Americans without insurance don't go to the doctor for preventative care, which means that if they have an illness, they are diagnosed when their disease is at a more advanced stage, and, finally, once diagnosed, the uninsured receive less care and die more often and sooner than people with insurance."</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"In fact, throughout every stage of health and disease, no matter what the type of care, including general health, mental health, dental health, and specific diseases, Americans without insurance fare worse than those with insurance, according to the National Coalition on Health Care."</blockquote>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The Uninsured Aren't the Problem</b></div>
<br />
Don't be fooled by looking at the above graph into thinking that the <i>number</i> of uninsured has remained the same - it hasn't. It has increased from around 23 million in the early 70s to around 43 million today. In the same time frame, the total population has also increased from around 180 million to 260 million (which is why the <i>percentage</i> of uninsured has remained the same).<br />
<br />
That being said, the number of those who <i>have</i> insurance has also increased, so all things are relatively equal.<br />
<br />
Those without insurance are going without preventative care which means they aren't a burden to the health system in that area. When something catastrophic occurs, however, is when that can change (trauma, major disease, etc.). That being said, that would have been the case in the early 70s as well so based on that criteria, the uninsured can't be attributed to rising health care costs (unless illegal immigration is taken into account which won't be discussed here).<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="background-color: white;">Conclusion</b></div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<br />
It was actually quite difficult to find non-factors in the health care debacle. Unfortunately the health care system in the United States is so complex and inter-dependent that nearly every measured variable is a player in the <i>cause</i> of the problem. In the next article (or perhaps more) the many factors playing into this problem will be revealed.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
- continue to <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-3-why-you-are.html" target="_blank">Part 3</a> -</div>
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) What other variables might be non-factors in the heath care problem?<br />
2) How are the tobacco companies profits these days?<br />
3) What country has the 'best' health care system?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/">http://www.cdc.gov/</a>
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0812976525&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0230605230&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0520250060&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1592577342&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0763738522&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
1st graph:
ggplot(smoking.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Overall.Population)) +
geom_point(color="blue", size=2) +
geom_line(aes(group=1), color="blue", size=2.5) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2009, xend=2010, y=23, yend=19.3, color="blue"), color="blue", size=2) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2008.8, xend=2010, y=17, yend=19.3, color="blue"), color="blue", size=2) +
geom_text(x=1965, y=47, label="42.4%", size=4) +
geom_text(x=2010, y=27, label="19.3%", size=4) +
scale_y_continuous(limits=c(0,100)) +
ylab("(%) Percentage who smoke\n") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Smoking in the United States\n",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob,
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 2, 1, 1), "cm"))
2nd graph:
ggplot(insured.frame, aes(x=Year, y=(Uninsured/Population.Under.65.Millions)*100)) +
geom_point(color="blue", size=2) +
geom_line(aes(group=1), color="blue", size=2.5) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2006, xend=2007, y=18.9, yend=16.7), color="blue", size=2) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2006, xend=2007, y=14.6, yend=16.7), color="blue", size=2) +
geom_text(x=1972, y=22, label="16.7%", size=4) +
geom_text(x=2007, y=22, label="16.6%", size=4) +
scale_y_continuous(limits=c(0,100)) +
scale_x_continuous(limits=c(1972,2007)) +
ylab("(%) Percentage of Population Uninsured\n") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(
plot.title=theme_text(size=24, family='Segoe'),
title = "Uninsured in the United States\n",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob,
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4, family='Segoe'),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90, family='Segoe'),
plot.margin = unit(c(1, 2, 1, 1), "cm"))
</span></pre>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-88842271349991748452012-07-05T10:21:00.001-07:002012-07-19T12:30:46.777-07:00Health Care Costs - Part 1, "The Problem"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b2AcaLzcUEI/T_UAkvDq47I/AAAAAAAAAJ8/EybnjNmegYM/s1600/health_care_costs_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="yearly health care costs graph" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b2AcaLzcUEI/T_UAkvDq47I/AAAAAAAAAJ8/EybnjNmegYM/s640/health_care_costs_publish.png" title="annual health care costs chart" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The Problem</b><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
In the United States, health care costs have been going up for a number of years, even when adjusted for inflation. Not unlike a runaway freight train, this rampant inflation cannot continue indefinitely without crashing.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Health</b></div>
<br />
What is 'health', anyway? According to Steven Jonas, MD, Raymond Goldsteen, DrPH, and Karen Goldsteen, PhD in their book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/082610214X/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=082610214X">An Introduction to the U.S. Health Care System</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=082610214X" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />, the <a href="http://www.who.int/" target="_blank">World Health Organization</a> (WHO) defined it in 1946:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity."</blockquote>
Interesting. When is the last time any of us felt like this was the goal of health care in the U.S.? They go on to say:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Indeed, the WHO definition is 'honored in repetition, rarely in application.'"</blockquote>
So, even when 'health' (as defined here) is only applied in a narrow scope, the costs are still increasing quickly - and outpacing inflation (otherwise the lines above would be flat).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a name='more'></a></div>
<b>Out of Control</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
An article written for the Robert Graham Center ("<a href="http://www.graham-center.org/online/graham/home/publications/onepagers/2005/op40-insurance-2025.html" target="_blank">Who will have health insurance in the year 2025?</a>") postulates that by the year 2025 the costs of insurance premiums will surpass household income. Below is the graph from that article depicting this forecast:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eTqohHu2mqA/T_XGBF8WenI/AAAAAAAAAKI/iokekpWQ6eM/s1600/op40.Par.0001.Image.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eTqohHu2mqA/T_XGBF8WenI/AAAAAAAAAKI/iokekpWQ6eM/s1600/op40.Par.0001.Image.gif" /></a></div>
<br />
Practically speaking, there is no way the above situation can occur as no business can survive if priced out of existence. However, it illuminates the problem and provides a time frame in which it must be solved. Bottom line: we're on the clock to solve this burgeoning crisis.<br />
<br />
That being said, health care is not cheap and were it not for some intervening factors <i>right now</i>, it would cost a lot more. <span style="background-color: white;">In their (excellent) book, </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071592083/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0071592083&linkCode=as2&tag=graofthewee-20" style="background-color: white; text-align: center;">The Innovator's Prescription: A Disruptive Solution for Health Care</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0071592083" style="background-color: white; border: none !important; margin: 0px !important; text-align: center;" width="1" /><span style="background-color: white;">, authors Clayton M. Christensen, Jerome H. Grossman, M.D., and Jason Hwang, M.D. note:</span><br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Today, it's very expensive to receive care from highly trained professionals. Without the largesse of well-heeled employers and governments that are willing to pay for much of it, most health care would be inaccessible to most of us."</blockquote>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
True words, indeed.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<b>Conclusion</b></div>
<br />
Clearly, health care costs are on the rise; perhaps we are on the verge of a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtuous_circle_and_vicious_circle" target="_blank">vicious cycle</a>. Historically speaking, this isn't the first time health care has been addressed. Beliefs range from total government healthcare to total private health care and all points in between. Regardless of where a person stands philosophically, the reality is that health care in the United States is getting out of control. <span style="background-color: white;">In this series of articles, we'll explore both the factors and non-factors in this phenomenon and hopefully some shed some light on this complicated topic. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white;">- continue to <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/07/health-care-costs-part-2-unhealthy.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a> -</span></div>
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) What other solutions have been provided to reverse the rising trend of health care?<br />
2) How long can the above trend continue if nothing changes - <a href="http://www.graham-center.org/online/graham/home/publications/onepagers/2005/op40-insurance-2025.html" target="_blank">2025</a>?<br />
3) Is our national <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-1.html" target="_blank">weight gain</a> problem a factor?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/">http://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
ggplot() +
geom_point(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Per.person.expense.mean, color="Average"), size=3) +
geom_line(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Per.person.expense.mean, color="Average"), size=2) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2008.6, xend=2009.06, y=5000, yend=4950, color="Average"), size=2) +
geom_segment(aes(x=2008.8, xend=2009.05, y=4600, yend=4950, color="Average"), size=2) +
geom_point(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Out.of.pocket, color="Out of Pocket"), size=2) +
geom_line(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Out.of.pocket, color="Out of Pocket"), size=1, linetype=2) +
geom_point(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Private.insurance, color="Private Insurance"), size=2) +
geom_line(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Private.insurance, color="Private Insurance"), size=1, linetype=3) +
geom_point(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Medicare, color="Medicare"), size=2) +
geom_line(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Medicare, color="Medicare"), size=1, linetype=4) +
geom_point(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Medicaid, color="Medicaid"), size=2) +
geom_line(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Medicaid, color="Medicaid"), size=1, linetype=5) +
geom_point(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Other, color="Other"), size=2) +
geom_line(data=adjusted.health.expenses.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Other, color="Other"), size=1, linetype=6) +
ylab("Per person annual average expenditures\n (in dollars)\n") +
xlab("Year") +
scale_colour_manual(values=wideBluePalette) +
scale_y_continuous(labels = mysep) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=1996:2009) +
opts(title="Health Care Expenses\n (adjusted for inflation)\n",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = function(...)pngob, title="library(png)",
axis.line = theme_segment(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(size=12),
axis.text.y=theme_text(size=12),
axis.title.x=theme_text(size=14, vjust=-0.4),
axis.title.y=theme_text(size=14, hjust=0.5, angle=90))
</span></pre>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=082610214X&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0199769125&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0071592083&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0974892718&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
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</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-25559134362201375902012-06-20T12:31:00.001-07:002012-06-20T12:31:52.757-07:00Body Weight in the United States - Part 3, "Contributing Factors"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FSPyeovhQos/T994MDnyNaI/AAAAAAAAAJY/CbRT3EjSkIU/s1600/Calorie_trend_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="calorie intake by food group chart" border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FSPyeovhQos/T994MDnyNaI/AAAAAAAAAJY/CbRT3EjSkIU/s640/Calorie_trend_publish.png" title="u.s. calorie intake trend graph" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Carbs</b></div>
<br />
In P<a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-2-non.html" target="_blank">art 2</a> of this series, <i>micro</i>-nutrients were cited as a non-factor for weight gain. This is not the case with <i>macro</i>-nutrients (carbohydrates, fats, proteins, water). While fats, proteins and water are essential (without them you could not live), carbohydrates, on the other hand, don't appear to share this status. As Dr. Christian B. Allan and Dr. Wolfgang Lutz state in their book <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0658001701/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0658001701">Life Without Bread: How a Low-Carbohydrate Diet Can Save Your Life</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0658001701" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />:</i><br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"To our knowledge, there has never been an essential carbohydrate discovered. Every carbohydrate your body needs can be made from either protein or fat."</blockquote>
<br />
Wow - powerful words, indeed. This is not to say that carbohydrates do not add healthy value to our bodies (such as fiber); rather is puts their contributions into perspective. This makes looking at the above chart very disturbing as it shows we've been wolfing down carbs more and more for quite some time -<span style="background-color: white;"> a nutrient that we simply do not need in large quantities, much less ever </span><i style="background-color: white;">increasing</i><span style="background-color: white;"> quantities.</span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">If you eat ten pounds of cheesecake in a day, you will gain weight (and then promptly lose some of that as you throw up). Your body just cannot deal with those extra calories and is forced to do what it does best - store them as fat (those that didn't end up on the floor). This certainly holds true when eating carbs since they are mostly non-essential. The end result will be the same - a new, larger wardrobe.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Speaking of carbohydrates, let us turn our attention to caloric sweeteners (sugars that have calories).</span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2addoi7Yn30/T-CuRdq86fI/AAAAAAAAAJk/p5TKsqo-n9E/s1600/Caloric_sweets_trend_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="high fructose corn syrup sugar annual consumption graph" border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-2addoi7Yn30/T-CuRdq86fI/AAAAAAAAAJk/p5TKsqo-n9E/s640/Caloric_sweets_trend_publish.png" title="high fructose corn syrup vs sugar yearly trend chart" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>High Fructose Corn Syrup</b></div>
<br />
Before 1970, nobody ever heard of high fructose corn syrup (it had only become viable around 1967). Humans had never encountered it before, so any long-term effects from it were unknown. Cane sugar, on the other hand, had been around since <a href="http://www.kew.org/plant-cultures/plants/sugar_cane_history_early_origins_and_spread.html" target="_blank">6000 B.C.</a> and was a primary sweetener of the time. It's effects were well-known given its (extremely) long history in the human diet.<br />
<br />
So what caused this mysterious new sugar to show up? Due to <a href="http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/01/04/how-the-finally-ended-corn-ethanol-subsidy-made-us-fatter/" target="_blank">government subsidies</a> encouraging corn crop production for <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/02/massive-increase-in-ethanol-production.html" target="_blank">Ethanol</a>, so much corn was produced that something had to be done with all of the excess.<br />
<br />
Enter High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) - a product which could be made from all that extra corn. At around the same time the U.S. government imposed tariffs on sugar imports, setting the stage for a significant change in our diet.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">According to Dr. Dee Takemoto in her book </span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1452543593/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1452543593" style="background-color: white;">Gaining Weight?: High Fructose Corn Syrup and Obesity</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=1452543593" style="background-color: white; border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" /><span style="background-color: white;">, she observed this trend first hand:</span><br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"I wasn't too political at the time, being kind of a hippie artist housewife, in the hills of northern California, but I had read that they were subsidizing farmers not to grow certain crops and that imports of certain foods were being limited. One of those was sugar which had been replaced by high fructose corn syrup! Lobbying power, anyone?"</blockquote>
Thus, the replacement of sugar with HCFS began as the chart above shows. E<span style="background-color: white;">stimates show that Americans now gobble down anywhere from 35 to 60 lbs of HFCS per year versus virtually zero lbs in 1970. Coincidence or not, this corresponds to the same time frame in which rapid weight gain has occurred in the United States.</span>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>A Reversal?</b></div>
<br />
In 2011 the oft-maligned corn Ethanol subsidy was <a href="http://phys.org/news/2012-01-ethanol-subsidy-expires.html" target="_blank">allowed to expire</a> due to various pressures. Interestingly, the rise in products containing sugar in place of HFCS <span style="background-color: white;">(such as 'Throw-back' Pepsi) </span><span style="background-color: white;">began to emerge around the same time</span><span style="background-color: white;">.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Coincidence</span><span style="background-color: white;">?</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">The public is beginning to get wind of HFCS-is-bad-for-you relationship, so food manufacturers are slowly and quietly (re)introducing products on the market replacing HFCS with sugar as the cost to do so becomes more manageable (the graph above shows this recent trend).</span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>But does HFCS make you fat?</b></div>
<br />
Almost assuredly so. Rats, when given <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100322121115.htm" target="_blank">HFCS instead of sugar</a> (while caloric intake was the same) gained significantly more weight - <b>to the point of obesity</b> - in every single case. According to the <a href="http://www.ajcn.org/content/76/5/911.full" target="_blank">American Journal of Clinical Nutrition</a>, <i>all </i>animals given HFCS will gain weight when compared to control subjects - every single one (and also in humans - scroll down to section 3 in the article cited). Thus, the evidence is strong in relating HFCS consumption with weight gain.<br />
<br />
Additionally, HFCS is a <a href="http://www.lef.org/magazine/mag2008/dec2008_Metabolic-Dangers-of-High-Fructose-Corn-Syrup_01.htm" target="_blank">chief suspect</a> for the rise in <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0004546/" target="_blank">metabolic syndrome</a> in the U.S., causing all sorts of nastiness such has heart disease, diabetes and strokes. In fact, it is difficult to see any beneficial health effects from HFCS at all.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Chair Jobs</b></div>
<br />
In <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-2-non.html" target="_blank">part 2</a> of this series, it was noted that <i>leisure-time</i> activity has gone up. But, not unlike attempting to "counter a pack-a-day smoking habit by jogging", our <i>occupational-time</i> (work-time) activity has gone down. And guess where we spend most of our time?<br />
<br />
At work.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span id="goog_55408211"></span><span id="goog_55408212"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iR8mw31f16k/T-ICy8ILeSI/AAAAAAAAAJw/k3kwCb2vMyU/s1600/sitting-is-killing-you.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iR8mw31f16k/T-ICy8ILeSI/AAAAAAAAAJw/k3kwCb2vMyU/s320/sitting-is-killing-you.jpg" width="46" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Medical Billing and Coding created an excellent </span><a href="http://www.builtlean.com/2011/10/03/is-a-sedentary-job-ruining-your-health/" style="background-color: white;" target="_blank">info-graphic</a><span style="background-color: white;"> which really gets the points across about the dangers of sitting too long (shown at left - click to see full size).</span><br />
<br />
To hammer this home a bit more, consider this question raised by Dr. James Levine in his eBook <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B007OLYMZW/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B007OLYMZW">Is Your Chair Killing You?</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B007OLYMZW" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"But what if I told you that even if you adhere to the government's guidelines for daily exercise and work out for thirty to sixty minutes per day three to five days per week, you still may not be doing enough to counteract the damage that sitting for extended periods does to your health?"</blockquote>
</blockquote>
He elaborates on the dangers of sitting asserting that it is worse for us than "smoking a pack a day." It's sobering news when we learn just how little we move while in a chair as described in this New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/magazine/mag-17sitting-t.html?_r=2" target="_blank">piece</a> with Dr. Levine. Indeed the "chair-based life style" not only makes us overweight, but it reduces our ability to counteract weight gain - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtuous_circle_and_vicious_circle" target="_blank">a vicious cycle</a> (an economic term which plays well here).<br />
<br />
In other words, the more you sit, the harder it is to un-do the effects from it.<br />
<br />
Although this <a href="http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/18/3/339.full" target="_blank">extremely well-executed study</a> was performed in Europe, it applies to the United States as well. In it, thirty-year trends show an increase in <i>leisure-time</i> activity with a significant drop in <i>occupational-time</i> activity - for both men and women.<br />
<br />
So while more people are jumping, running, spinning, climbing and dancing in gyms all around the country <i>after</i> work, we are sitting on our butts more <i>during</i> work. And the <i>during</i> work part is killing us faster than the <i>after</i> work part can save us.<br />
<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Conclusion</b></div>
<br />
In <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-1.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a> of this series it was shown that Americans are getting fatter - no surprise there. <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-2-non.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a> highlighted some of the major non-factors in weight gain while this 3rd installment provides (strong) evidence to the causes of increasing fatness. While<span style="background-color: white;"> each section of this article uses a different data set, it would be irresponsible to directly link these factors (as presented here) to weight gain. However, the evidence is nearly overwhelming and ignoring these factors will most likely lead to a lifetime of poor health, disease and weight problems.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">We are in control of our own destiny which includes our health. Tr</span><span style="background-color: white;">usting your health to the government (or any one entity) will lead to </span><span style="background-color: white;">disastrous</span><span style="background-color: white;"> results - just look around to see proof of this in action. At the end of the day, do what works for you - even if in direct opposition to various health claims, studies, articles (such as this one) and advice. Each of us, while sharing many similarities, is unique and wonderful and responds best to our own internal guidance.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">That being said, a good place to start would be to reduce carbohydrates, eliminate high fructose corn syrup and get out of the chair whenever possible.</span><br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Usage of HFCS has been trending downward as of late - will this continue?<br />
2) People are working long hours at sedentary jobs to 'get ahead' - at what cost to their health?<br />
3) The U.S. government provides subsidies for specific crops - is there a way to assist farmers without this restriction?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" style="background-color: white;">http://www.cdc.gov/</a><br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(totals.melt.frame, aes(x=Year, y=value, color=variable)) +
geom_point(size=0.5) +
geom_line(aes(group=variable), size=1) +
ylab("Amount (calories)") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(title="Yearly U.S. Food Consumption by Type",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>2nd graph:</b></u>
ggplot() +
geom_point(data=sugars.melt.frame, aes(x=Year, y=value, color=variable), size=1.3) +
geom_line(data=sugars.melt.frame, aes(x=Year, y=value, color=variable), size=0.7) +
geom_line(data=sugars.frame, aes(x=Year, y=High.Fructose.Corn.Syrup, color="High.Fructose.Corn.Syrup"), size=2) +
geom_line(data=sugars.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Refined.cane.and.beet.sugar, color="Refined.cane.and.beet.sugar"), size=2) +
geom_point(data=sugars.frame, aes(x=Year, y=High.Fructose.Corn.Syrup, color="High.Fructose.Corn.Syrup"), size=2.5) +
geom_point(data=sugars.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Refined.cane.and.beet.sugar, color="Refined.cane.and.beet.sugar"), size=2.5) +
ylab("Amount (calories)") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(title="Yearly U.S. Sugar Consumption by Type",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment())
</span></pre>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1452543593&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1594774137&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B007OLYMZW&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0970950071&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-19778444321506002592012-06-13T10:49:00.001-07:002012-07-06T21:18:06.010-07:00Body Weight in the United States - Part 2, "Non Factors"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-geYogzEvBcg/T9T8G4SIIEI/AAAAAAAAAI0/aNrlrTS6JZY/s1600/alcohol_consumption_united_states_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="yearly alcohol consumption graph united states" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-geYogzEvBcg/T9T8G4SIIEI/AAAAAAAAAI0/aNrlrTS6JZY/s640/alcohol_consumption_united_states_publish.png" title="annual alcohol consumption chart" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
Sometimes the story isn't what <i>is</i> a trend, but rather what is <i>not</i> a trend. In this second installment about body weight in the U.S., listing what doesn't seem to be contributing factors will help narrow down what might actually be the problem(s).<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Alcohol</div>
<br />
"Stay busy, get plenty of exercise and don't drink too much. Then again, don't drink too little."<br />
- <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Smith-Johannsen" target="_blank">Herman "Jackrabbit" Smith-Johannsen</a><br />
<br />
Sage advice from a person who lived to be 111 years old.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Alcohol has been around since <a href="http://www2.potsdam.edu/hansondj/controversies/1114796842.html" target="_blank">10,000 B.C.</a>, starting with beer. In fact, it may have preceded bread which, as will be discussed in the next article, might be a contributing factor to weight gain. Perhaps the ancients had it right by 'drinking' their bread...<br />
<br />
Looking at the above graph, alcohol consumption hasn't changed all that much since 1960. Peering back <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/141656/drinking-rate-edges-slightly-year-high.aspx" target="_blank">even further</a>, Americans are remarkably consistent when it comes to having that 'wee nip' at the local pub. Considering the explosion in the variety of drinks available today, humans are adept at moderating their intake of spirits.<br />
<br />
Therefore, one cannot say that alcohol consumption is related to weight gain as a trend in this country.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Exercise (during leisure time)</div>
<br />
Surprise! American are not sitting around as much as they used to during their <b>leisure time</b> (time not working or commuting to work). That means that when not working, we are <i>more</i> active now than in the past as the graph below shows:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsAgNKGN3rE/T9V3tl5my4I/AAAAAAAAAJA/AXSJ4mAP7hQ/s1600/sedentary_percent_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="annual sedentary trend chart" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsAgNKGN3rE/T9V3tl5my4I/AAAAAAAAAJA/AXSJ4mAP7hQ/s640/sedentary_percent_publish.png" title="yearly physical activity trend chart" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
With over <a href="http://www.ihrsa.org/media-center/2011/4/5/us-health-club-membership-exceeds-50-million-up-108-industry.html" target="_blank">50 million health club memberships</a> and nearly 30,000 health clubs, it appears that Americans are collectively pumping more iron then ever before. Go to any spa after work and it will be filled to capacity with people on every imaginable machine. Being an <a href="http://www.memphisconnect.com/2012/05/17/patrick-rhodes-rbs-tuesday-night-ride/" target="_blank">avid cyclist</a>, this author has personally witnessed a cycling boom all over the country.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Just try going to a garage sale and not seeing some sort of exercise equipment for sale. Yes, that means that it's no longer being used in <i>that</i> household, but once sold would be used in a new household (hopefully).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There isn't an (obvious) relationship between <i>leisure-time</i> exercise and weight gain. Of course, exercise can come at other times and this will be examined in the next article.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Does that mean that all that effort is wasted? No, not at all. People are getting heavier in this country and it seems likely the rate at which that occurs would increase if people stopped working out altogether.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Nutrients (micro)</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Micro-nutrients (vitamins and minerals) are those that are needed in small quantities while macro-nutrients (carbohydrates, fats, protein, water, etc.) are those needed in large quantities. Click <a href="http://www.organicsoul.com/macro-and-micronutrients-what-they-are-and-why-we-need-them/" target="_blank">here</a> to see a detailed description. Insufficient quantities of micro-nutrients can lead to <a href="http://www.livestrong.com/article/291408-list-of-diseases-caused-by-poor-nutrition/" target="_blank">several diseases</a>, most of which have been eliminated in the U.S. due to our ready supply of fortified food.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Even so, is it possible Americans, on average, are not getting enough micro-nutrients? In other words, could this partially explain the rise in body weight over the last fifty years?</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-42gxlOTcTVY/T9epVx07qMI/AAAAAAAAAJM/qDGOq7EsOww/s1600/micro_nutrients_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="yearly u.s. micro nutrient levels" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-42gxlOTcTVY/T9epVx07qMI/AAAAAAAAAJM/qDGOq7EsOww/s640/micro_nutrients_publish.png" title="united states food nutrients annual" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Looking at the graph above, it is important to see that consumption of micro-nutrients has remained fairly steady for over a hundred years. The chart isn't designed for individual nutrient clarity, but rather to paint a broad stroke so that the reader can see most of the lines are fairly level. Sodium and potassium levels are marked, however, since those two nutrients are frequently mentioned. Over time, sodium intake has gone up while potassium intake has gone down - not by a large amount, but it's worth noting.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
That being said, excessive sodium intake will lead to water retention which has a weight of approximately 8.3 lbs per gallon (1kg per liter). So, while sodium does not contribute to <i>fat</i> gain, it does lead to <i>body weight</i> gain holding on to all that water internally.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Even including sodium, the micro-nutrients in our food have remained rather stable. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume weight gain in the U.S. isn't attributable to this particular aspect of our food.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Conclusion</div>
<br />
Alcohol, leisure-time activity and micro-nutrients - when taken as a whole - do not appear to be factors for U.S. citizens gaining weight. More than likely there are individual cases where this isn't true, but this article refers to overall trends. It should be noted that this article isn't cause to drink more, exercise less or eat junk food - doing one or more of those activities will probably make you fatter. What <i>is</i> being said is that Americans don't drink enough for it to be a factor, nor do they exercise too little in their <i>leisure-time</i> (as opposed to other times), nor has our food become less nutritious (at the micro level) - on average.<br />
<br />
So why are we getting fatter if the above hold true? Come back next week for Part 3 of this series to find out.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-3.html">Continue to Part 3</a></div>
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Will somebody ever make alcoholic drinks packed with vitamins and minerals?<br />
2) Is there a link between malnutrition and democracy index?<br />
3) What other surprising phenomena aren't related to weight gain?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://stats.oecd.org/">http://stats.oecd.org</a>/<br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/">http://www.cdc.gov/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(subset(alcohol.frame, Country=="United States"), aes(x=Year, y=Value, group=Year)) +
geom_point(color="blue", size=2.5) +
geom_line(aes(group=1), color="blue", size=1.1) +
ylab("Amount (Liters per Capita)") +
xlab("Year") +
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(5,15)) +
opts(title="Annual (per capita) United States Alcohol Consumption",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>2nd graph:</b></u>
ggplot(sedentary.frame, aes(x=Year,y=Percent.Sedentary.During.Leisure)) +
geom_point(size=2.5, color="blue") +
geom_line(size=1.1, color="blue") +
ylab("% Sedentary") +
xlab("Year") +
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0,100)) +
opts(title="% Sedentary During Leisure Time",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment(),
plot.margin = unit(c(0, 3.5, 0, 0), "cm"))
</span></pre>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1592404642&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1452545685&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B005GL53YQ&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0142001619&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=159643449X&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-15077682789416793732012-06-06T11:16:00.000-07:002012-07-06T21:17:10.073-07:00Body Weight in the United States - Part 1, "The Problem"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IZDYqpo0d9U/T85G3a3akII/AAAAAAAAAIg/jOIJ3B39iZQ/s1600/bmi_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="annual bmi chart" border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IZDYqpo0d9U/T85G3a3akII/AAAAAAAAAIg/jOIJ3B39iZQ/s640/bmi_publish.png" title="yearly bmi graph" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
The Problem<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
In the United States, people are getting fatter and they are doing so at an alarming rate.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
So What?</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Being fat isn't just a social stigma - it's unhealthy in nearly every facet of life. Staying in this condition brings high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma and arthritis to name but a few. Additionally, an obese person has a much harder time 'doing stuff' in terms of physical activity.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Want to know what it feels like? Strap on a fifty pound backpack and go for a walk. Better yet, try running with that extra weight and you will see just how much it impacts your ability to exercise let alone your ability to <i>enjoy</i> it. Do this daily for years and your joints will be set up perfectly for a lifetime of pain and stiffness.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Kudos to our military personnel (and any other job where this is required) who wear at least that much gear every day while performing their duties.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
For the rest of us, an honest assessment is needed to reverse this trend.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a></div>
BMI<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Do you know your BMI (Body Mass Index)? Click <a href="http://www.nhlbisupport.com/bmi/" target="_blank">here</a> to access the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's calculator.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Once you have your BMI, look at the above chart. Where do you stand? If you are muscular, the calculator tends to overestimate while if you are older it may underestimate. That being said, it will still be in the ballpark because humans all share the same basic anatomy.<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Heavier People</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Ignoring BMI and only looking at body weight, it is obvious that people are heavier. Adult men on average have gained about 25 lbs (11.3 kg) from 1960 through 2002:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QYLoDtOVSFA/T85G9SyYWJI/AAAAAAAAAIo/U8Buh3-vDd8/s1600/weight_gain_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="average body weight chart" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QYLoDtOVSFA/T85G9SyYWJI/AAAAAAAAAIo/U8Buh3-vDd8/s640/weight_gain_publish.png" title="average body weight graph" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Average weight for adult men.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
That's about 0.6 lbs (0.27 kg) per year. Like many trends, it doesn't seem so bad when describing the rate, but over time it adds up rather quickly.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Taller People</div>
<br />
Since 1960, people have grown taller - about 0.9 inches (2.29 cm) taller for women and about 1.1 inches (2.79 cm) taller for men. So we are taller <i>and</i> heavier. That would explain some weight gain, but does it account for all 25 lbs? A little bit of math will reveal the answer:</div>
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
1960: 166.3 lbs / 68.3 inches
<span style="background-color: #e3e3e3; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva; font-size: 13px;">→</span> <b><span style="color: red;">2.43 lbs/inch</span></b></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
2002: 191.0 lbs / 69.4 inches
<span style="background-color: #e3e3e3; font-family: Verdana, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva; font-size: 13px;">→</span> <b><span style="color: red;"> 2.75 lbs/inch</span></b></div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
The above calculations show that we are heavier per inch of height - about 1/3 lb more. Therefore the extra height does not explain all of the extra weight gain.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
How much should an average height male weigh today?</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If we were to measure how much we <i>would </i>weigh in 1960 given our extra height, it would come out to about <b>169 lbs</b>! Compare that to 191 lbs - a difference of <b>22 lbs</b> (10 Kg)!</div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
Conclusion</div>
<br />
People in the United States are getting taller and heavier. The rate of the former (height) is much slower than the latter (weight). People are becoming more unhealthy as a result. Additionally, it can be difficult to enjoy life when toting around those extra pounds. The only resolution to this problem is to lose weight - permanently. The next two articles will present information why this trend has occurred while also shedding light on ways to possibly reverse it.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/06/body-weight-in-united-states-part-2-non.html">Continue to Part 2</a></div>
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) How long can this trend continue?<br />
2) What is the burden on health care due to obesity?<br />
3) Are other countries experiencing similar problems?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/">http://www.cdc.gov/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. Additional graphics were created/edited using <a href="http://www.gimp.org/" target="_blank">GIMP</a>.<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot() +
geom_line(data = subset(bmi.frame, Description == "Obese (BMI >= 30.0)"), aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Obese (BMI >= 30.0)"), size=2) +
geom_line(data = subset(bmi.frame, Description == "Overweight (BMI >= 25.0 and BMI <= 29.9)"), aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Overweight (BMI >= 25.0 and BMI <= 29.9)"), size=1) +
geom_line(data = subset(bmi.frame, Description == "Neither overweight nor obese (BMI <= 24.9)"), aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Neither overweight nor obese (BMI <= 24.9)"), size=1) +
geom_point(data = subset(bmi.frame, Description == "Obese (BMI >= 30.0)"), aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Obese (BMI >= 30.0)"), size=3) +
geom_point(data = subset(bmi.frame, Description == "Overweight (BMI >= 25.0 and BMI <= 29.9)"), aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Overweight (BMI >= 25.0 and BMI <= 29.9)"), size=2) +
geom_point(data = subset(bmi.frame, Description == "Neither overweight nor obese (BMI <= 24.9)"), aes(x=Year, y=Median, color="Neither overweight nor obese (BMI <= 24.9)"), size=2) +
ylab("% of Population") +
xlab("Year") +
scale_colour_manual(values=cbPaletteNoGray) +
opts(title="Body Mass Index (BMI) in the United States",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment())
</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>2nd graph:</b></u>
ggplot(weight.frame, aes(x=Date.Range, y=Weight.lb)) +
geom_point(aes(size=Weight.lb), color="dark red") +
geom_line(aes(group=1, size=Weight.lb), color="dark red") +
geom_smooth(aes(group=1), size=1, color="black", method="lm", na.rm=FALSE, fill=NA, linetype=2) +
ylab("Weight (pounds)") +
xlab("Year Range") +
opts(title="Weight Gain in the United States",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.line = theme_segment())
</span></pre>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=097920951X&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1619424304&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B004WLOSWO&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B007SRVYF8&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1419685821&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-16886991245226876152012-05-23T12:45:00.000-07:002012-05-23T12:45:02.719-07:00Global Fires, the Amazon and Humans<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1JPaxzf_9G8/T7w9z-8mzzI/AAAAAAAAAHo/AcgfUOdO_mY/s1600/1997_2010_carbon_from_fires_publish.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="global annual co2 emissions map" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1JPaxzf_9G8/T7w9z-8mzzI/AAAAAAAAAHo/AcgfUOdO_mY/s640/1997_2010_carbon_from_fires_publish.gif" title="global carbon emissions map" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fires are natural - most of the time (click on image for larger view).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Natural Global Fires</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Many plants and animals have evolved to depend on fires periodically occurring in certain parts of the world. This phenomenon has been occurring for millions of years, successfully replenishing and rejuvenating the areas in which it is allowed to happen. The ashes enrich the soil, animal populations are re-balanced and new life springs into existence. Additionally, these fires do not reduce the amount of land on which forests grow, thereby preserving the ecosystems contained within (with no loss of forest land).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Unnatural Global Fires</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Using the word 'unnatural' is always risky, but here it is meant to convey control by humans - which in itself <i>is</i> 'natural', but introduces many variables not before seen in history. Unlike natural fires which are beneficial, unnatural forest fires often have the opposite effect - especially when used to clear land of trees to make way for agriculture or construction. Over time, the number of trees decreases while the number of humans increases. More humans require more agriculture which means more deforestation.</div>
<div>
<a name='more'></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Carbon Dioxide</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Carbon dioxide is a major product of wood combustion. Looking at the above map, the produced amounts of this gas from fire can be seen over a thirteen year period from 1997-2010 (click on the image for a larger view). It's fairly obvious that fires tend to arise in the same places year after year. In most cases, the carbon dioxide produced is a result of naturally occurring fires as described above. However, in a few cases - particularly the Amazon Rainforest - much of this carbon output arises from unnatural fires.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
The Amazon Rainforest</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What is so special about the Amazon rainforest? For starters, it represents over half of the world's remaining rainforests. It has been around for over 50 million years during which time numerous animals and plants have evolved and thrived within its confines. One in ten known species (of both plants and animals) lives in this area, representing a mind-boggling array of <a href="http://news.mongabay.com/news-index/Amazon%20biodiversity1.html" target="_blank">biodiversity</a>. In a universe where life is scarce (see <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/05/finding-earth-ii.html" target="_blank">previous article</a> about finding Earth II), the Amazon is brilliant diamond to be admired and respected.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Humans (nay, all animals) rely upon the rainforest as well. Not only does it produce oxygen, but it also consumes carbon dioxide - necessary for all breathing animals. NASA has estimated the number of trees world-wide at around 400 billion. The human population is nearly 7 billion which gives us around 57 trees per person. In the past, that ratio was much higher in favor of the trees. That being said, there are still enough trees to support the oxygen requirements for life as we know it presently, but the ratio is still going down.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Oxygen from Oceans</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It should be noted that about half of the world's oxygen supply does not come from trees or plants, but from the <a href="http://bloomfieldmichael.wordpress.com/2010/09/28/phytoplankton-vanishing-from-warming-oceans-world%E2%80%99s-oxygen-supply-threatened/" target="_blank">phytoplankton</a> in the world's oceans (which itself has changed, but that's another story for another time). That's a good thing, given the amount of deforestation which has occurred. Otherwise, we might already be able to notice tangible differences in our air.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v-ys6eqE_1E/T7xautkfiHI/AAAAAAAAAH0/zCwCT3LMsWs/s1600/amazon_deforestation_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="yearly amazon deforestation rate graph" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v-ys6eqE_1E/T7xautkfiHI/AAAAAAAAAH0/zCwCT3LMsWs/s640/amazon_deforestation_publish.png" title="annual amazon deforestation rate chart" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brazil's GDP has gone up recently, perhaps reducing the need for deforestation.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Since 1970, about 80% of the Amazon rainforest remains. In terms of actual forest loss, that equates to about 745,000 square kilometers - that's larger than the size of France! However, as the chart above shows, the rate of deforestation has been going down since 2004 due to a number of reasons. Hopefully this trend will continue - not only in the Amazon, but other forests as well.</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
Conclusion</div>
<br />
Fires are a naturally occurring phenomenon which are beneficial to the world's ecosystems. However, when fire is used to remove forests for agriculture or construction, what remains has a greater burden to support a larger population of humans. This harms our <a href="http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Symbiotic+Relationships" target="_blank">symbiotic relationship</a> with the trees so this cannot continue indefinitely. Like any good relationship, we must respect and nurture our partners while they do the same for us. Perhaps the recent trend in the Amazon is an indication that we understand this. Short-term gain is not a bad thing, but if it means a long-term loss then it is surely the wrong path.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Will the Amazon rainforest be preserved?<br />
2) What is going on in the world's oceans in terms of oxygen production?<br />
3) When will a 'breaking point' occur at which time resources cannot support future population levels?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.globalfiredata.org/">http://www.globalfiredata.org/</a>
<br />
<a href="http://www.mongabay.com/">http://www.mongabay.com/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' and '<a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.html" target="_blank">maps</a>' packages within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. In the future, different plotting packages will begin to be seen here, including 3d plots and trellis plots. Stay tuned!<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(countries, aes(long, lat, group=group)) +
geom_polygon(data = global.carbon.1997.map.frame, aes(x=long, y=lat, fill=value, group=group), size=0.2) +
geom_polygon(colour="black", alpha=0.2) +
ylab("Latitude") +
xlab("Longitude") +
scale_fill_continuous(low="light grey", high="red",
space = "Lab"
) +
opts(title="1997 Global Carbon Emissions from Fire (1e12 grams Carbon per year)",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>2nd graph:</b></u>
ggplot(amazon.frame, aes(x=Period, y=Annual_forest_loss)) +
geom_point() +
geom_line(aes(group=1),size=1.0) +
geom_smooth(aes(group=1), method="lm", na.rm=FALSE, fill=NA, size=1.0) +
ylab("Annual Forest Loss (square kilometers)") +
xlab("Period") +
opts(title="Amazon Deforestation Loss",
axis.text.x=theme_text(angle=45, hjust=1),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
plot.margin = unit(c(0,6,0,0), "lines")) +
scale_y_continuous(labels = mysep)
</span></pre>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0521822297&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1588341356&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1580801080&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0801888409&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0231125798&ref=tf_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-16807947931409286552012-05-16T10:48:00.002-07:002012-05-25T12:20:15.239-07:00Global Homicide Rates by Government Type<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uvXeZePHCKk/T7KtW336E6I/AAAAAAAAAHQ/AfAyL5chafw/s1600/flawed_dem_homicide_rates_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="world homicide rates by democracy index" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uvXeZePHCKk/T7KtW336E6I/AAAAAAAAAHQ/AfAyL5chafw/s640/flawed_dem_homicide_rates_publish.png" title="world homicide rates by government type" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Surprising results</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
For purposes of this article, any mention of homicide rates refers to <i>reported</i> homicide rates.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Open vs Closed</div>
<br />
In mostly open countries (full democracies), the homicide rates are rather low when compared to other types of governments - except for authoritarian regimes. Left open to speculation, the reasons can be many. Perhaps people in free societies are happier - happy people don't tend to murder other people, otherwise they wouldn't be happy. In a previous articles, it was shown that full democracies produce <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/04/live-longer-choose-your-country-wisely.html" target="_blank">longer life spans</a> and are world leaders in <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/03/nordic-countries-dominate-world-in.html" target="_blank">technological advancements</a>. So, not only do people thrive when free, but they live longer and pursue creativity.<br />
<br />
In mostly closed countries (authoritarian regimes), the homicides rates are also low (comparatively speaking). It's very well possible that not all homicides are reported in these countries - especially given recent events regarding the revolts in the Arabian countries (see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring" target="_blank">Arab Spring</a>). Many thousands have died during this time which would <i>not</i> be reported as a 'homicide.' When the government murders a person, it is viewed as eliminating a criminal - not a homicide (in all countries, that is). But if the rates are somewhat accurate, then why so low? Perhaps it is due to fear - people who are afraid for their own lives probably will not kill others if that means their own death.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Who Reports the Most Homicides?</div>
<br />
Flawed democracies.<br />
<br />
These are the 2nd tier most 'free' countries. That begs the question - what exactly is a flawed democracy? It's not a simple answer - it's a rating based on a country's <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/8908438" target="_blank">democracy index</a>. In summary, it is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, the functioning of government, political participation and political culture. Click <a href="http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/DEMOCRACY_INDEX_2007_v3.pdf" target="_blank">here</a> for a full description.<br />
<br />
Why is this? Perhaps those countries have unemployment problems, gender equality problems or culture problems. The question begs further research in this area and this author has not yet found a statistical correlation. If interested, the worst offenders include Honduras, Jamaica, El Savador, Trinidad and Tobago, South Africa, Brazil, and Columbia.<br />
<br />
Anybody with insight into this area is welcome to comment. At any rate, if you are planning on visiting or moving to a country with a 'flawed democracy', you should keep the data presented here in mind.<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Xscn2oE4_HI/T7_ak2gxrnI/AAAAAAAAAIA/Zy80LmGDFy0/s1600/democracy_index_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="global government category map" border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Xscn2oE4_HI/T7_ak2gxrnI/AAAAAAAAAIA/Zy80LmGDFy0/s640/democracy_index_publish.png" title="world democracy index map" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Too many authoritarian regimes.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<i>EDIT: Originally published on 2012-05-16, the above map was out of date (showing USSR instead of current global makeup). On 2012-05-25 it was replaced using current political boundaries.</i><br />
<br /></div>
For a global map categorized by government type, see the chart above. Nearly 40% of the world is under authoritarian rule (much of that is China), while only 13% are under a full democracy. It would be interesting to see a similar map at one hundred year intervals going back in time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
A country can indeed make the transition from authoritarian regime to full democracy, but usually not without significant loss of life. Both Germany and Japan were authoritarian before and during World War II, but have since become very free countries. Hopefully this will occur in the aforementioned Arabian countries as well - time will tell.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Conclusion</div>
<br />
This is the third article showing a relationship between freedom and its effects on people (the first two are <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/04/live-longer-choose-your-country-wisely.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/03/nordic-countries-dominate-world-in.html" target="_blank">here</a>). Based on the data, this series of articles (strongly) suggests that people thrive more in free countries than oppressed ones. In this particular instance, there is a relationship between freedom and low homicide rates as well as a similar one for authoritarian regimes. All things being equal, this author chooses to live freely. Without that freedom, it wouldn't be possible to even find data for such an article as this much less publish it. Oppression is only beneficial to the oppressors.<br />
<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) When looking at history, is there an increasing or decreasing trend in the number of full democracies?<br />
2) How many homicides are not reported?<br />
3) What would this map look like if all wrongful deaths were accurately reported?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://data.un.org/">http://data.un.org/</a>
<br />
<a href="http://www.eiu.com/">http://www.eiu.com/</a><br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' package within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. In the future, different plotting packages will begin to be seen here, including 3d plots and trellis plots. Stay tuned!<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(subset(homicide.merge.frame, Source.Level.1=='Police'), aes(x=Index, y=Rate, group=Category, fill=Category)) +
geom_boxplot() +
ylab("Homicides per 100,000") +
xlab("Democracy Index") +
opts(title="Flawed Democracies Produce Hightest Homicide Rates",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;"><u>2nd graph:</u>
ggplot(globe, aes(long, lat, group=group)) +
geom_polygon(data = dem.globe.index.frame, aes(x=long, y=lat, fill=Category, group=group), size=0.2) +
geom_polygon(colour="black", alpha=0.2) +
ylab("Latitude") +
xlab("Longitude") +
opts(title="Government Category Map",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0313383456&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0465020151&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=9211303109&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1442200251&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0521683785&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-4990942341495011472012-05-09T10:29:00.002-07:002012-05-09T10:32:13.304-07:00The NFL: Pass or Lose<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-njfQ8-qGSQw/T6lf_k8fuQI/AAAAAAAAAHE/Gvx6J1892Tk/s1600/MorePassingMoreYards_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="nfl rushing yards per year annually" border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-njfQ8-qGSQw/T6lf_k8fuQI/AAAAAAAAAHE/Gvx6J1892Tk/s640/MorePassingMoreYards_publish.png" title="nfl passing yards per year annually" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The rushing game is slowly disappearing.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Heave That Sucker</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
When it doubt, chunk the pigskin. Whether you like it or not, <a href="http://www.nfl.com/" target="_blank">NFL</a> (National Football League) teams are relying upon passing more and more. Looking at the above chart, the average passing yards per game tends to go up by 25 yards every two decades - or 1.25 yards per year.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Can't Touch This</div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
As the game has progressed, <a href="http://nflhealthandsafety.com/commitment/evolution/" target="_blank">rule changes</a> (especially since 1974) have allowed receivers nearly unrestricted movement down field. The result? A wide receiver can basically sprint thirty or forty yards, '<a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=juke" target="_blank">juking</a>' defenders without being touched. The ball can then be rocketed to them in no time resulting in huge gains - given you have a great quarterback.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
In other words, if you don't have the ball in your hands, you are allowed free movement at full speed.<br />
<br />
Try doing that <i>with</i> the ball in your hands - you will be gang tackled. Which is one reason why rushing is slowly losing favor and trending downward slightly each year (0.3 yards per year).<br />
<br />
And also why rushers have the shortest NFL careers - they get hit relentlessly and often.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Time</div>
<br />
So why rush at all? Time. It keeps the clock running which keeps the <i>other</i> team's offense off the field. Not to mention giving the offense a chance to beat up the defense a little. There are several other reasons to run the ball, but this is not a <a href="http://www.nfl.com/rulebook/beginnersguidetofootball" target="_blank">football primer</a>, so we'll stop there.<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Case in Point - 2011</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
In 2011, there was a relationship between passing and winning. How much of a relationship? Well, about 33% of a team's winning percentage can be attributed to its passing yardage total. Admittedly, that's not a very strong relationship, but teams should pay attention to it regardless. Look at the graph below to see the trend as well as the teams employing it more effectively.</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lTwB_Ej_ddY/T6lVlhUpIII/AAAAAAAAAG4/duQK5jvAMQs/s1600/Pass_to_win_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="nfl passing rushing win percentage" border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lTwB_Ej_ddY/T6lVlhUpIII/AAAAAAAAAG4/duQK5jvAMQs/s640/Pass_to_win_publish.png" title="nfl passing rushing 2011" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Don't Rush to Win</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
The Quarterback with the Golden Arm</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
There is a financial scrum every time a good quarterback hits the market which is a rare phenomenon in and of itself. Teams which understand how important the passing game is will go to extreme measures to obtain the right QB (see Peyton Manning). Having the ability to read the defense, react accordingly, understand the passing routes and deliver a crisp pass to the receiver are sought-after qualities leading to a significant number of wins.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Rushing for Support</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Perhaps the more surprising statistic is that rushing has no relationship to winning in terms of yardage. That being said, it is likely that rushing helps to open up the passing game. If the defense knows you can run, then they have to 'play honest' (prevents them from setting up only to defend the pass). Regardless, there is no doubt that rushing for 200 yards per game will not get you wins as there is no correlation.</div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Conclusion</div>
<br />
The NFL has changed the rules over time to protect the offense - especially the quarterback and receivers. Therefore, if you have premium players capable of exploiting the niches made available via these rule changes, then you most likely have yourself a winning team. Additionally, the fans seem to love a 'wide open' style of play which involves lots of passing. On the other hand, nothing is more deflating than seeing a team run it up the middle for no gain. Expect to see more passing as the game evolves unless the rules change in favor of rushing.<br />
<br />
Next year this author is going to use data such as this to make a few predictions. It shouldn't be difficult to out-perform the <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/01/espn-prediction-performance-for-nfl.html" target="_blank">ESPN analysts</a>.<br />
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) Just how little can a team rush the ball and still be competitive?<br />
2) Will we see a team average 400 yards passing per game in the future?<br />
3) Will the NFL change the rules to make rushing more viable (again)?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/">http://www.pro-football-reference.com/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' package within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. In the future, different plotting packages will begin to be seen here, including 3d plots and trellis plots. Stay tuned!<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(nfl.passing.win.frame, aes(x=W.L., y=Y.G, color="Passing", label=Tm)) +
geom_point(data=nfl.passing.win.frame, aes(x=W.L., y=Y.G, color="Passing")) +
geom_point(data=nfl.rushing.win.frame, aes(x=W.L., y=Y.G, color="Rushing")) +
geom_text(size=2.5, angle=0, hjust=.5) +
geom_smooth(data=nfl.passing.win.frame, aes(x=W.L., y=Y.G, color="Passing"), fill=NA, size=1.1, linetype=2, method="lm", na.rm=FALSE) +
geom_smooth(data=nfl.rushing.win.frame, aes(x=W.L., y=Y.G, color="Rushing"), fill=NA, size=1.1, linetype=2, method="lm", na.rm=FALSE) +
ylab("Yards per Game") +
xlab("Win Percentage") +
opts(title="NFL 2011: Pass to Win",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;"><u>2nd graph:</u>
ggplot(nfl.sub.frame) +
geom_line(data=nfl.sub.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Yds.1, color="Passing"), size=1.1) +
geom_line(data=nfl.sub.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Yds.2, color="Rushing"), size=1.1) +
geom_line(data=nfl.sub.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Yds, color="Total"), size=1.1) +
geom_smooth(data=nfl.sub.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Yds.1, color="Passing"), fill=NA, size=1.1, linetype=2, method="lm", na.rm=FALSE) +
geom_smooth(data=nfl.sub.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Yds.2, color="Rushing"), fill=NA, size=1.1, linetype=2, method="lm", na.rm=FALSE) +
geom_smooth(data=nfl.sub.frame, aes(x=Year, y=Yds, color="Total"), fill=NA, size=1.1, linetype=2, method="lm", na.rm=FALSE) +
ylab("Yards per Game") +
xlab("Year") +
opts(title="NFL: More Passing, More Yards",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1603208879&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B0049985Q4&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B003O6EAM6&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0470522836&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B0056U4CYE&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-77661498487558076402012-05-02T11:07:00.000-07:002012-05-07T10:55:07.347-07:00Finding Earth II<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2lTa_y1CBQw/T6AKvZjDD5I/AAAAAAAAAGg/kbXgQeC9L_o/s1600/only_just_begun_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="rate of finding exoplanets yearly by distance" border="0" height="321" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2lTa_y1CBQw/T6AKvZjDD5I/AAAAAAAAAGg/kbXgQeC9L_o/s640/only_just_begun_publish.png" title="rate of finding exoplanets yearly by distance" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">By 2030, we will have found approximately 10,000 exoplanets.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
"<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">If it is just us... seems like an awful waste of space."</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">-- from the movie <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001AH6ZWY/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B001AH6ZWY">Contact</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B001AH6ZWY" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />
(1997) based on the book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0671004107/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=graofthewee-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0671004107">Contact</a><img alt="" border="0" height="1" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=graofthewee-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0671004107" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" width="1" />
by <a href="http://www.carlsagan.com/" target="_blank">Carl Sagan</a>.</span><br />
<br />
By the year 2030, it's possible that over ten thousand exoplanets (planets outside our solar system) will have been discovered if the above trend continues. That assumes a couple of things:<br />
<ol>
<li>The rate at which they are being discovered continues to grow in an exponential manner.</li>
<li>There aren't other limiting factors.</li>
</ol>
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Hurdles</div>
</div>
<div>
<br />
There is a huge amount of variability that exists in real life. For example, there are only a finite number of telescopes capable of detecting exoplanets in existence - and all of those are time-shared for other purposes. In addition, there is a finite number of astronomers who's interests lie in this area. Other factors would include budgets, <a href="http://www.novacelestia.com/space_art_extrasolar_planets/detect_extrasolar_planets.html" target="_blank">detection methodologies</a>, automation techniques, political stability and others which cannot be foreseen.<br />
<br />
In other words, don't take that prediction too seriously.<br />
<br />
Or perhaps you should. After all, we may discover far more exoplanets in that same time frame.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Farther and Smaller</div>
<br />
Studying the above graph, it can be seen that planets are being discovered farther and farther away, which says something about the <a href="http://www.novacelestia.com/space_art_extrasolar_planets/detect_extrasolar_planets.html" target="_blank">techniques</a> used to discover them. It is mind-boggling to think that we can sense the presence of objects so far away mostly by inference. The thought of travelling to any of these distant planets is even more mind-blowing as we face many problems 'just' getting to Mars.<br />
<br />
Looking at the chart below reveals our ability to see smaller and smaller planets as our techniques and knowledge grow. If that trend continues, it is only a matter of time before we can detect Earth-sized exoplanets and perhaps smaller. This will be more exciting than finding all of the current gas giants since we can't land or live on those - the Earth-sized rocky planets are another matter. In those cases, not only is the gravity of those planets (probably) comparable to ours, but we have something to land on and if it has oxygen (and other gases favorable for respiration) then perhaps we might someday set foot there.<br />
<br />
Exciting, yes?<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LSPLTx3HCNw/T6AKRAfkwjI/AAAAAAAAAGY/tfB6EP7JEC8/s1600/finding_earth_2_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="finding exoplanets size in jupiters trend" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LSPLTx3HCNw/T6AKRAfkwjI/AAAAAAAAAGY/tfB6EP7JEC8/s640/finding_earth_2_publish.png" title="finding exoplanets size in jupiters trend" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It won't take long.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Earth II</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If we were to ever set foot on another planet that harbors intelligent life, it would be very illuminating to discover their political systems, social norms, history and culture to name a few. Would they have lots of countries like us? And could we attribute a <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/04/live-longer-choose-your-country-wisely.html" target="_blank">democracy index</a> to them as well?</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If it is mostly uninhabited (not likely if it has an oxygen-rich atmosphere), then how might we re-create civilization there? Would we learn from our past mistakes? And how might relations be between Earth I and Earth II? Eventually (if not immediately) Earth II would be independent - would they have to fight Earth I for it?</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The possibilities seem endless.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Conclusion</div>
<br />
The human species has gone from traveling by horse and carriage to landing on the moon in less than a century. Forty years after that we have begun to detect exoplanets. As time marches on, it will be interesting to see developments in this area, especially if we find life elsewhere. It might actually be more interesting to find a planet capable of sustaining terrestrial life as that would give us a target for migration. After all, if it 'just us', then maybe we can make better use of the space.<br />
<div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) If life is discovered elsewhere, how will that affect humanity?<br />
2) Will we ever be able to launch a manned expedition to another world outside our solar system?<br />
3) Which will be the first country to make it to Mars, if ever?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://exoplanets.org/">http://exoplanets.org/</a>
<br />
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' package within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. In the future, different plotting packages will begin to be seen here, including 3d plots and trellis plots. Stay tuned!<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(exo.planets.sub.frame, aes(x=factor(DATE), y=`Size (in Jupiters)`)) +
geom_point(aes(size=`Size (in Jupiters)`, color=`Size (in Jupiters)`)) +
xlab("Year") +
ylab("Planet Radius") +
opts(title="Just a Matter of Time before finding Earth II",
panel.background = theme_blank())</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;"><u>2nd graph:</u>
ggplot(exo.planets.sub.frame, aes(x=DATE, group=`Distance (in parsecs)`, fill=`Distance (in parsecs)`)) +
geom_histogram(binwidth=1) +
xlab("Year") +
ylab("Number of Exoplanets Discovered") +
opts(title="We've Only Just Begun",
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0816529450&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=1461406439&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0521139384&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0691142548&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B0079444F2&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8566036031670722613.post-938125929708476192012-04-25T10:56:00.000-07:002012-05-07T11:01:37.919-07:00Live Longer - Choose Your Country Wisely (if you can)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RSLQp0K-YUs/T5drd7ppYuI/AAAAAAAAAF4/jJTy46Ep2LU/s1600/life_expectancy_by_govt_type_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="life expectancy by government type" border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RSLQp0K-YUs/T5drd7ppYuI/AAAAAAAAAF4/jJTy46Ep2LU/s640/life_expectancy_by_govt_type_publish.png" title="live longer by living in a full democracy" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Full democracy countries are the ones in which to live.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This week's story could start and end with the above graph with almost no further explanation.<br />
<br />
But that wouldn't do it justice.<br />
<br />
So, like so many of the past articles on "<a href="http://graphoftheweek.org/" target="_blank">Graph of the Week</a>", a bit of analysis will be provided based on collected data and research. Starting with what is shown above, it is clear that people tend to live longer under <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/8908438" target="_blank">full democracies</a>. The range of life spans under this type of government nearly always are above 80. Compare that with other forms of government where only a select few nations have longevity near that age.<br />
<br />
And as might be expected, authoritarian regimes have the most countries with comparatively short life expectancies.<br />
<br />
Why?<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Government Spending on Healthcare</div>
<br />
In the first graph, the countries in blue are the ones under a full democracy and also rank very high on the democracy index scale. Using those same colors below, it is plainly obvious that these same countries spend more per capita on healthcare than do other forms of government - a <b>lot </b>more:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-elApL8d8z1w/T5dzwyBLmgI/AAAAAAAAAGA/jNEMmS5vqK4/s1600/democracy_vs_govt_expenditures_publish.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="higher democracy index equals more per capita spending on health care" border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-elApL8d8z1w/T5dzwyBLmgI/AAAAAAAAAGA/jNEMmS5vqK4/s640/democracy_vs_govt_expenditures_publish.png" title="government health care expenditures vs democracy index" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Nordic countries lead the way again.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Freedom, Compassion and Longevity</div>
<br />
In many of these countries, there is some form of universal healthcare which accounts for much of the spending. Regarding the U.S., a significant amount is spent on Medicare and Medicaid, but there is no universal health care. There certainly seems to be a relationship between freedom, compassion and longevity in countries embracing full democracies (see <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/03/nordic-countries-dominate-world-in.html" target="_blank">previous chart</a> showing democracy index and internet penetration). In other words, those countries that look after their own tend to live longer lives. Since humans are a social species, this isn't a surprise.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Universal Health Care - Quality</div>
<br />
There is usually some form of universal health care in authoritarian regimes as well. On the surface, it would appear that all things are equal until the amount of spending on health care is examined. Clearly, full democracies spend much more on their systems than the others. That, combined with the longevity factor paints a picture which suggests more spending is needed to increase life spans. It is not enough to simply have a universal health care system; rather, the quality of that system is what drives longevity.<br />
<br />
That being said, the quality of a health care system isn't reflected by the amount spent. It is useful to see expenditure as an indicator, but not as a cause of a quality system. To more accurately evaluate this aspect, further research would be needed and is out of the scope of this article.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Conclusion</div>
<br />
Countries in which their citizens have little voice in their own destinies would do well to make changes to reverse this situation. Unfortunately, most leaders in power are loathe to give up said power due to its many perks - at the cost, health, happiness and freedom of its citizens. This is a tragedy on a global scale.<br />
<br />
This has been the 2nd article to identify a relationship between democracy and other factors. The <a href="http://www.graphoftheweek.org/2012/03/nordic-countries-dominate-world-in.html" target="_blank">first </a>showed that internet availability is much higher in countries with a high democracy index. Stay tuned for more articles in this series.<br />
<div style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">
<br /></div>
<hr />
<br />
<b>Questions:</b><br />
1) When might we see the highest average life span creep into the 90 year range?<br />
2) The <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle-east-protest-interactive-timeline" target="_blank">Arab Spring</a> has started - will something similar happen in other authoritarian countries?<br />
3) Has quality of life (not the same as standard of living) also been improved along with longevity?<br />
<br />
<b>Data:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.who.int/" style="text-align: left;">http://www.who.int/</a><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<b>Code:</b><br />
These graphs were generated using the '<a href="http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/" target="_blank">ggplot2</a>' package within the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/" target="_blank">R programming language</a>. In the future, different plotting packages will begin to be seen here, including 3d plots and trellis plots. Stay tuned!<br />
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;">
<u><b>1st graph:</b></u>
ggplot(health.frame, aes(x=Category, y=Life.expectancy, group=Category, fill=Category, label=Location)) +
geom_boxplot() +
ylab("Life Expectancy") +
xlab("Government Type") +
opts(title="Life Expectancy by Government Type (2009)",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank(),
axis.text.x=theme_text(angle=0, hjust=0.5))</span></pre>
<pre><span style="font-size: x-small;"><u>2nd graph:</u>
ggplot(health.frame, aes(x=Index, y=Per.capita.government.US, label=Location, color=Category)) +
geom_point(size=0.5, colour='dark grey') +
geom_text(size=3.5, angle=0, hjust=.5) +
ylab("Per Capita Government Spending (U.S. Dollars)") +
xlab("Democracy Index") +
opts(title="Gov't Health Care Expenditures vs. Democracy Index (2009)",
legend.title = theme_blank(),
panel.background = theme_blank())
</span></pre>
<b>Further Reading:</b>
<br />
<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0452297702&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=081184949X&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0465019668&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0470873906&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=graofthewee-20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=B004KABG5O&ref=qf_sp_asin_til&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&m=amazon&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="height: 240px; width: 120px;"></iframe>
</div>dezert1http://www.blogger.com/profile/01201701558271990438noreply@blogger.com6